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Bundesliga

Referee: B Dankert

Hamburg

U S S S T

1–3

Full-time

Stuttgart

T U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Stuttgart

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 1/35 matches

Win Ø 12%

23%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 82%

100%

63%

Both score Ø 36%

71%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

0,0

1,4

Conceded

3,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

-3,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

63% Possession 37%

11 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

5 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 18

5 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	34	21	8	5	+54	+16.1	71
2	Dortmund	34	22	5	7	+39	+23.9	71
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	6	8	+23	+15.0	66
4	Union Berlin	34	18	8	8	+13	-4.4	62
5	Freiburg	34	17	8	9	+7	-5.2	59
6	Leverkusen	34	14	8	12	+8	+8.9	50
7	Ein Frankfurt	34	13	11	10	+6	+1.5	50
8	Wolfsburg	34	13	10	11	+9	+5.3	49
9	Mainz	34	12	10	12	-1	-4.0	46
10	M'gladbach	34	11	10	13	-3	-3.4	43
11	FC Koln	34	10	12	12	-5	+4.1	42
12	Hoffenheim	34	10	6	18	-9	-6.5	36
13	Stuttgart	35	8	12	15	-9	+3.0	36
14	Werder Bremen	34	10	6	18	-13	-6.9	36
15	Bochum	34	10	5	19	-32	-9.5	35
16	Augsburg	34	9	7	18	-21	-13.2	34
17	Schalke 04	34	7	10	17	-36	-9.1	31
18	Hertha	34	7	8	19	-27	-15.4	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	17	14	2	1	+38	+16.3	44
2	RB Leipzig	17	13	2	2	+20	+2.8	41
3	Union Berlin	17	11	6	0	+19	-0.6	39
4	Bayern Munich	17	11	5	1	+36	+15.8	38
5	Freiburg	17	10	4	3	+15	-1.3	34
6	M'gladbach	17	10	3	4	+15	+6.9	33
7	Ein Frankfurt	17	9	5	3	+17	+6.9	32
8	Leverkusen	17	8	3	6	+12	+4.8	27
9	Bochum	17	8	2	7	-4	-2.3	26
10	Wolfsburg	17	6	7	4	+9	+7.1	25
11	Mainz	17	6	6	5	+6	-0.5	24
12	Stuttgart	18	6	6	6	+4	+3.3	24
13	FC Koln	17	6	5	6	+8	+6.9	23
14	Hoffenheim	17	7	2	8	-1	+2.1	23
15	Augsburg	17	6	4	7	-8	-5.4	22
16	Hertha	17	5	6	6	-3	-2.5	21
17	Schalke 04	17	5	5	7	-13	-2.5	20
18	Werder Bremen	17	5	2	10	-2	+1.2	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	10	3	4	+18	+0.4	33
2	Dortmund	17	8	3	6	+1	+7.6	27
3	RB Leipzig	17	7	4	6	+3	+12.2	25
4	Freiburg	17	7	4	6	-8	-3.8	25
5	Wolfsburg	17	7	3	7	+0	-1.8	24
6	Leverkusen	17	6	5	6	-4	+4.0	23
7	Union Berlin	17	7	2	8	-6	-3.8	23
8	Mainz	17	6	4	7	-7	-3.4	22
9	Werder Bremen	17	5	4	8	-11	-8.1	19
10	FC Koln	17	4	7	6	-13	-2.8	19
11	Ein Frankfurt	17	4	6	7	-11	-5.4	18
12	Hoffenheim	17	3	4	10	-8	-8.6	13
13	Augsburg	17	3	3	11	-13	-7.9	12
14	Stuttgart	17	2	6	9	-13	-0.3	12
15	Schalke 04	17	2	5	10	-23	-6.7	11
16	M'gladbach	17	1	7	9	-18	-10.3	10
17	Bochum	17	2	3	12	-28	-7.2	9
18	Hertha	17	2	2	13	-24	-12.9	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.