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Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Zwayer

Hamburg

S S T U T

1–2

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,5

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 62%

35%

88%

Points per game

1,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

53%

71%

Both score Ø 41%

47%

35%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,1

2,7

Conceded

1,4

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+2,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

29% Possession 71%

7 Shots 20

1 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 10. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	15	1	1	+38	46
2	Dortmund	17	12	2	3	+24	38
3	Hertha	17	10	2	5	+8	32
4	M'gladbach	17	9	2	6	+4	29
5	Leverkusen	17	8	3	6	+5	27
6	Schalke 04	17	8	3	6	+0	27
7	Wolfsburg	17	7	5	5	+5	26
8	Mainz	17	7	3	7	+0	24
9	FC Koln	17	6	6	5	-3	24
10	Hamburg	17	6	4	7	-4	22
11	FC Ingolstadt 04	17	5	5	7	-7	20
12	Augsburg	17	5	4	8	-5	19
13	Darmstadt	17	4	6	7	-9	18
14	Ein Frankfurt	17	4	5	8	-7	17
15	Stuttgart	17	4	3	10	-15	15
16	Werder Bremen	17	4	3	10	-15	15
17	Hannover	17	4	2	11	-11	14
18	Hoffenheim	17	2	7	8	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	9	0	0	+29	27
2	Dortmund	8	7	1	0	+20	22
3	Wolfsburg	9	6	2	1	+14	20
4	Hertha	8	6	1	1	+7	19
5	M'gladbach	9	6	1	2	+6	19
6	Schalke 04	9	5	2	2	+2	17
7	Leverkusen	8	4	2	2	+6	14
8	FC Koln	9	3	4	2	+1	13
9	Mainz	9	4	1	4	+0	13
10	Stuttgart	9	3	1	5	-7	10
11	Ein Frankfurt	8	2	3	3	-2	9
12	Hamburg	8	2	2	4	-2	8
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	2	2	4	-3	8
14	Augsburg	9	2	2	5	-4	8
15	Hoffenheim	8	1	4	3	-3	7
16	Darmstadt	9	1	4	4	-8	7
17	Hannover	8	2	0	6	-4	6
18	Werder Bremen	8	1	1	6	-11	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	6	1	1	+9	19
2	Dortmund	9	5	1	3	+4	16
3	Hamburg	9	4	2	3	-2	14
4	Hertha	9	4	1	4	+1	13
5	Leverkusen	9	4	1	4	-1	13
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	9	3	3	3	-4	12
7	Mainz	8	3	2	3	+0	11
8	Augsburg	8	3	2	3	-1	11
9	Darmstadt	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Werder Bremen	9	3	2	4	-4	11
11	FC Koln	8	3	2	3	-4	11
12	M'gladbach	8	3	1	4	-2	10
13	Schalke 04	8	3	1	4	-2	10
14	Ein Frankfurt	9	2	2	5	-5	8
15	Hannover	9	2	2	5	-7	8
16	Hoffenheim	9	1	3	5	-5	6
17	Wolfsburg	8	1	3	4	-9	6
18	Stuttgart	8	1	2	5	-8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.