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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Nott'm Forest

T U T T T

1–2

Full-time

Brighton

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,2

This season — Championship · 40/38 matches

Win Ø 41%

28%

53%

Points per game

1,2

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

33%

55%

Both score Ø 52%

48%

55%

Average goals

1,9

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,5

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

54% Possession 46%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 6

7 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 20. · Brighton 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	41	22	14	5	+31	80
2	Middlesbrough	40	24	7	9	+30	79
3	Brighton	38	20	13	5	+18	73
4	Hull	37	20	9	8	+33	69
5	Sheffield Weds	38	18	11	9	+19	65
6	Derby	39	17	13	9	+16	64
7	Cardiff	41	16	15	10	+8	63
8	Ipswich	41	16	12	13	+0	60
9	Birmingham	40	16	11	13	+6	59
10	Preston	41	14	14	13	+0	56
11	QPR	41	13	16	12	+4	55
12	Wolves	41	13	14	14	-4	53
13	Brentford	40	15	7	18	-4	52
14	Reading	40	13	12	15	-1	51
15	Leeds	40	11	15	14	-10	48
16	Blackburn	41	11	14	16	-1	47
17	Fulham	41	11	14	16	-4	47
18	Bristol City	41	12	11	18	-19	47
19	Huddersfield	41	12	10	19	-5	46
20	Nott'm Forest	40	11	13	16	-6	46
21	Rotherham	41	13	7	21	-13	46
22	Milton Keynes Dons	41	9	10	22	-25	37
23	Charlton	41	8	12	21	-35	36
24	Bolton	41	4	14	23	-38	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	20	15	3	2	+25	48
2	Burnley	21	14	5	2	+23	47
3	Brighton	19	13	3	3	+13	42
4	Hull	17	12	5	0	+30	41
5	Sheffield Weds	19	12	5	2	+22	41
6	Cardiff	20	11	7	2	+12	40
7	Derby	20	11	6	3	+18	39
8	QPR	21	9	8	4	+11	35
9	Reading	21	8	9	4	+7	33
10	Ipswich	21	8	7	6	+3	31
11	Birmingham	19	9	3	7	+2	30
12	Preston	20	7	8	5	+1	29
13	Blackburn	20	7	7	6	+6	28
14	Rotherham	20	8	4	8	-2	28
15	Nott'm Forest	20	7	6	7	+0	27
16	Brentford	20	8	3	9	-1	27
17	Wolves	21	6	9	6	-1	27
18	Huddersfield	21	7	5	9	+4	26
19	Fulham	21	7	5	9	+1	26
20	Bristol City	21	6	7	8	-3	25
21	Milton Keynes Dons	21	7	3	11	-12	24
22	Charlton	20	5	8	7	-6	23
23	Leeds	20	5	8	7	-6	23
24	Bolton	20	4	10	6	-2	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	20	8	9	3	+8	33
2	Brighton	19	7	10	2	+5	31
3	Middlesbrough	20	9	4	7	+5	31
4	Birmingham	21	7	8	6	+4	29
5	Ipswich	20	8	5	7	-3	29
6	Hull	20	8	4	8	+3	28
7	Preston	21	7	6	8	-1	27
8	Wolves	20	7	5	8	-3	26
9	Derby	19	6	7	6	-2	25
10	Brentford	20	7	4	9	-3	25
11	Leeds	20	6	7	7	-4	25
12	Sheffield Weds	19	6	6	7	-3	24
13	Cardiff	21	5	8	8	-4	23
14	Bristol City	20	6	4	10	-16	22
15	Fulham	20	4	9	7	-5	21
16	QPR	20	4	8	8	-7	20
17	Huddersfield	20	5	5	10	-9	20
18	Nott'm Forest	20	4	7	9	-6	19
19	Blackburn	21	4	7	10	-7	19
20	Reading	19	5	3	11	-8	18
21	Rotherham	21	5	3	13	-11	18
22	Milton Keynes Dons	20	2	7	11	-13	13
23	Charlton	21	3	4	14	-29	13
24	Bolton	21	0	4	17	-36	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.