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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Burnley

U U S U T

1–0

Full-time

Newcastle

S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,0

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

33%

44%

Points per game

1,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 28%

22%

33%

Both score Ø 39%

44%

33%

Average goals

1,9

2,0

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

47% Possession 53%

12 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 10. · Newcastle 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	9	1	0	+29	28
2	Man United	10	7	2	1	+19	23
3	Tottenham	10	6	2	2	+12	20
4	Chelsea	10	6	1	3	+8	19
5	Arsenal	10	6	1	3	+6	19
6	Liverpool	10	4	4	2	+1	16
7	Watford	10	4	3	3	-3	15
8	Newcastle	9	4	2	3	+2	14
9	Southampton	10	3	4	3	-1	13
10	Burnley	9	3	4	2	-1	13
11	Leicester	10	3	3	4	+0	12
12	Brighton	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Huddersfield	10	3	3	4	-6	12
14	Stoke	10	3	2	5	-9	11
15	West Brom	10	2	4	4	-4	10
16	West Ham	10	2	3	5	-9	9
17	Swansea	10	2	2	6	-5	8
18	Everton	10	2	2	6	-13	8
19	Bournemouth	10	2	1	7	-8	7
20	Crystal Palace	10	1	1	8	-17	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	5	5	0	0	+15	15
2	Arsenal	5	5	0	0	+9	15
3	Man City	5	4	1	0	+18	13
4	Liverpool	5	3	2	0	+8	11
5	Newcastle	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	Brighton	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Southampton	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Huddersfield	5	2	2	1	-2	8
10	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+2	7
11	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	+2	7
12	Stoke	5	2	1	2	-3	7
13	West Brom	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	West Ham	4	2	0	2	-1	6
15	Everton	5	2	0	3	-5	6
16	Burnley	4	1	2	1	+0	5
17	Watford	5	1	2	2	-6	5
18	Bournemouth	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	-5	4
20	Swansea	5	1	0	4	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Tottenham	5	4	0	1	+9	12
3	Chelsea	5	4	0	1	+6	12
4	Watford	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Man United	5	2	2	1	+4	8
6	Burnley	5	2	2	1	-1	8
7	Swansea	5	1	2	2	+0	5
8	Southampton	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Leicester	5	1	2	2	-2	5
10	Liverpool	5	1	2	2	-7	5
11	Newcastle	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-2	4
13	Arsenal	5	1	1	3	-3	4
14	Huddersfield	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	West Brom	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Bournemouth	5	1	0	4	-5	3
18	West Ham	6	0	3	3	-8	3
19	Everton	5	0	2	3	-8	2
20	Crystal Palace	5	0	0	5	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.