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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Chelsea

S T S S U

2–0

Full-time

Brighton

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,3

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 45%

63%

26%

Points per game

2,1

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

47%

26%

Both score Ø 37%

42%

32%

Average goals

2,4

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

67% Possession 33%

25 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

13 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 3. · Brighton 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	19	18	1	0	+48	55
2	Man United	19	13	3	3	+27	42
3	Chelsea	19	12	3	4	+18	39
4	Tottenham	20	11	4	5	+19	37
5	Liverpool	19	9	8	2	+18	35
6	Arsenal	19	10	4	5	+11	34
7	Burnley	19	9	5	5	+1	32
8	Leicester	19	7	6	6	+1	27
9	Everton	19	7	5	7	-6	26
10	Watford	19	6	4	9	-7	22
11	Huddersfield	19	6	4	9	-14	22
12	Brighton	19	5	6	8	-8	21
13	Southampton	20	4	7	9	-10	19
14	Stoke	19	5	4	10	-18	19
15	Newcastle	19	5	3	11	-10	18
16	Crystal Palace	19	4	6	9	-13	18
17	West Ham	19	4	5	10	-16	17
18	Bournemouth	19	4	4	11	-13	16
19	West Brom	19	2	8	9	-13	14
20	Swansea	19	3	4	12	-15	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	9	1	0	+29	28
2	Arsenal	10	8	1	1	+15	25
3	Man United	9	8	0	1	+19	24
4	Tottenham	10	6	3	1	+13	21
5	Chelsea	9	6	1	2	+7	19
6	Everton	10	6	1	3	+4	19
7	Liverpool	9	4	5	0	+11	17
8	Burnley	10	5	2	3	+1	17
9	Leicester	10	4	2	4	-1	14
10	Brighton	10	3	5	2	-2	14
11	Huddersfield	9	4	2	3	-2	14
12	Stoke	10	4	2	4	-6	14
13	Southampton	11	3	4	4	-2	13
14	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-3	12
15	West Ham	9	3	2	4	-4	11
16	Newcastle	9	3	1	5	-3	10
17	Watford	9	2	3	4	-9	9
18	Bournemouth	9	2	2	5	-4	8
19	West Brom	9	1	5	3	-5	8
20	Swansea	10	2	2	6	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	9	0	0	+19	27
2	Chelsea	10	6	2	2	+11	20
3	Man United	10	5	3	2	+8	18
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+7	18
5	Tottenham	10	5	1	4	+6	16
6	Burnley	9	4	3	2	+0	15
7	Leicester	9	3	4	2	+2	13
8	Watford	10	4	1	5	+2	13
9	Arsenal	9	2	3	4	-4	9
10	Newcastle	10	2	2	6	-7	8
11	Bournemouth	10	2	2	6	-9	8
12	Huddersfield	10	2	2	6	-12	8
13	Brighton	9	2	1	6	-6	7
14	Everton	9	1	4	4	-10	7
15	Southampton	9	1	3	5	-8	6
16	West Brom	10	1	3	6	-8	6
17	Crystal Palace	10	1	3	6	-10	6
18	West Ham	10	1	3	6	-12	6
19	Swansea	9	1	2	6	-6	5
20	Stoke	9	1	2	6	-12	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.