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Premier League

Referee: Graham Scott

Man United

S S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Bournemouth

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Bournemouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 47%

69%

25%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

63%

50%

Both score Ø 41%

38%

44%

Average goals

2,9

2,1

Scored

2,3

0,9

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%

9 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 3

7 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 9

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 2. · Bournemouth 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	16	1	0	+41	49
2	Man United	16	11	2	3	+25	35
3	Chelsea	17	11	2	4	+17	35
4	Burnley	17	9	4	4	+4	31
5	Liverpool	16	8	6	2	+14	30
6	Arsenal	16	9	2	5	+10	29
7	Tottenham	16	8	4	4	+14	28
8	Leicester	17	7	5	5	+4	26
9	Watford	17	6	4	7	-3	22
10	Everton	17	6	4	7	-8	22
11	Southampton	17	4	6	7	-6	18
12	Huddersfield	17	5	3	9	-17	18
13	Brighton	16	4	5	7	-7	17
14	Bournemouth	16	4	4	8	-4	16
15	Stoke	17	4	4	9	-17	16
16	Newcastle	17	4	3	10	-10	15
17	Crystal Palace	17	3	5	9	-16	14
18	West Brom	16	2	7	7	-10	13
19	West Ham	16	3	4	9	-18	13
20	Swansea	17	3	3	11	-13	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	1	0	+22	22
2	Man United	8	7	0	1	+18	21
3	Arsenal	8	7	0	1	+14	21
4	Burnley	9	5	2	2	+4	17
5	Liverpool	8	4	4	0	+11	16
6	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+6	16
7	Tottenham	8	4	3	1	+8	15
8	Everton	8	5	0	3	+2	15
9	Huddersfield	9	4	2	3	-2	14
10	Leicester	8	4	1	3	+2	13
11	Southampton	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-3	12
13	Stoke	8	3	2	3	-5	11
14	Brighton	8	2	4	2	-3	10
15	Newcastle	9	3	1	5	-3	10
16	West Ham	7	3	1	3	-3	10
17	Watford	8	2	3	3	-6	9
18	Bournemouth	8	2	2	4	+0	8
19	West Brom	8	1	5	2	-4	8
20	Swansea	9	2	1	6	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	9	0	0	+19	27
2	Chelsea	9	6	1	2	+11	19
3	Man United	8	4	2	2	+7	14
4	Liverpool	8	4	2	2	+3	14
5	Burnley	8	4	2	2	+0	14
6	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+6	13
7	Watford	9	4	1	4	+3	13
8	Leicester	9	3	4	2	+2	13
9	Arsenal	8	2	2	4	-4	8
10	Bournemouth	8	2	2	4	-4	8
11	Brighton	8	2	1	5	-4	7
12	Everton	9	1	4	4	-10	7
13	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	6
14	Swansea	8	1	2	5	-4	5
15	West Brom	8	1	2	5	-6	5
16	Newcastle	8	1	2	5	-7	5
17	Stoke	9	1	2	6	-12	5
18	Huddersfield	8	1	1	6	-15	4
19	West Ham	9	0	3	6	-15	3
20	Crystal Palace	8	0	2	6	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.