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Conference League
Referee: M Oliver
Fiorentina
U S S T S
3–2
Full-time
Club Brugge
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Club Brugge
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
1,8
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,8
2,7
Scored
1,8
2,5
Conceded
1,0
0,2
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 12/16 matches
Win Ø 63%
50%
75%
Points per game
1,9
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
42%
63%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,8
3,1
Scored
1,9
2,4
Conceded
0,9
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,23 xG 1,24
55% Possession 45%
31 Shots 5
10 Shots on target 3
8 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 7
8 Corners 1
2 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Fiorentina Club Brugge
1–0 R. Sottil ⚽
N. González
5′
15′
ℹ️ Igor Thiago
VAR: Penalty confirmed
17′
⚽ H. Vanaken 1–1
Nicolás González 🟨
36′
2–1 A. Belotti ⚽
37′
Half-time 2–1
C. Kouamé 🔁
↦ R. Sottil
52′
58′
🟨 Raphael Onyedika
61′
🟨 Raphael Onyedika
61′
🟥 Raphael Onyedika
63′
⚽ Thiago 2–2
J. Spileers
66′
🔁 C. Nielsen
↦ M. Skóraś
Lucas Martínez Quarta 🟨
70′
J. Ikoné 🔁
↦ L. Beltrán
70′
M. Lopez 🔁
↦ Arthur
70′
79′
🔁 H. Vetlesen
↦ Ferran Jutglà
84′
🟨 Nordin Jackers
M'Bala Nzola 🔁
↦ A. Belotti
88′
A. Barák 🔁
↦ G. Bonaventura
88′
3–2 M'Bala Nzola ⚽
91′
93′
🔁 J. Ordoñez
↦ J. Spileers
93′
🔁 É. Balanta
↦ D. Odoi
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Fiorentina

4-2-3-1
1 P. Terracciano G
2 Dodô D
28 L. Martínez Quarta D
16 L. Ranieri D
3 C. Biraghi D
6 Arthur M
5 G. Bonaventura M
10 N. González M
9 L. Beltrán M
7 R. Sottil M
20 A. Belotti F
Bench (12)
99 C. Kouamé
11 J. Ikoné
8 M. Lopez
18 M'Bala Nzola
72 A. Barák
32 A. Duncan
65 F. Parisi
38 R. Mandragora
53 O. Christensen
22 D. Faraoni
4 N. Milenković
33 M. Kayode

Coach: V. Italiano

Club Brugge

4-4-1-1
29 N. Jackers G
64 K. Sabbe D
58 J. Spileers D
44 B. Mechele D
14 B. Meijer D
8 M. Skóraś M
6 D. Odoi M
15 R. Onyedika M
9 Ferran Jutglà M
20 H. Vanaken F
99 Thiago F
Bench (10)
27 C. Nielsen
10 H. Vetlesen
4 J. Ordoñez
39 É. Balanta
55 M. De Cuyper
7 A. Skov Olsen
32 A. Nusa
28 D. Boyata
77 P. Zinckernagel
22 S. Mignolet

Coach: N. Hayen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Oliver · 207 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.