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Champions League
Referee: Juxhin Xhaja
Lech Poznan
U S U S U
0–3
Full-time
Aarhus
S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lech Poznan Aarhus
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,7
3,3
Scored
1,8
2,0
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
5,0
5,0
Scored
4,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
4,0
Goal diff per game
+3,0
-3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

49% Possession 51%
18 Shots 14
9 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 6
2 Goalkeeper saves 8
14 Corners 3
0 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Jul -26 Aarhus – Lech Poznan 1–4

Match report

Lech Poznan Aarhus
Robert Gumny ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
20′
1–0 ⚽
21′
32′
⚽ T. Bech 1–1
K. Arnstad
Antoni Kozubal 🟨
40′
45′
🟨 James Bogere
Half-time 1–1
53′
ℹ️ Frederik Emmery
VAR: Penalty confirmed
55′
⚽ K. Arnstad 1–2
60′
🔁 C. Storch
↦ J. Jensen-Abbew
A. Sayyadmanesh 🔁
↦ L. Palma
68′
70′
🔁 R. Carstensen
↦ J. Jonsson
70′
🔁 S. Tchamche
↦ J. Bogere
75′
⚽ F. Tingager 1–3
E. Kahl
F. Jagiello 🔁
↦ P. Rodriguez
81′
J. Pereira 🔁
↦ R. Gumny
81′
86′
🟨 Mikael Anderson
D. Hakans 🔁
↦ P. Walemark
87′
Y. Agnero 🔁
↦ M. Ishak
88′
91′
🟨 Frederik Emmery
93′
🔁 M. Camara
↦ E. Kahl
2–3 F. Jagiello ⚽
95′
97′
🔁 J. Serra
↦ M. Anderson
97′
🔁 T. Kristjansson
↦ F. Emmery
G. Thordarson 🔁
↦ R. Murawski
98′
100′
⚽ T. Kristjansson 2–4
T. Bech
Yannick Agnero 🟨
106′
107′
🟨 Mouhammade Camara
Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1
1 M. Lis G
20 R. Gumny D
27 W. Monka D
59 T. Yegbe D
15 M. Gurgul D
22 R. Murawski M
43 A. Kozubal M
10 P. Walemark M
21 P. Rodriguez M
77 L. Palma M
9 M. Ishak F
Bench (11)
41 B. Mrozek
35 M. Pruchniewski
4 J. Moutinho
7 Y. Agnero
90 H. Janyszka
24 F. Jagiello
2 J. Pereira
17 A. Sayyadmanesh
11 D. Hakans
72 M. Skrzypczak
23 G. Thordarson

Coach: Niels Frederiksen

Aarhus

3-4-2-1
21 M. Hedenstad G
40 J. Jensen-Abbew D
5 F. Tingager D
19 E. Kahl D
23 M. Anderson M
4 M. Knudsen M
16 J. Jonsson M
39 F. Emmery M
31 T. Bech F
10 K. Arnstad F
28 J. Bogere F
Bench (12)
41 O. Lyhne
42 M. van der Raad
29 R. Carstensen
45 C. Storch
13 J. Serra
8 S. Jorgensen
27 S. Tchamche
22 O. Haugstrup
46 H. Sengooba
20 T. Kristjansson
43 Z. Grantzau
44 M. Camara

Coach: Jakob Poulsen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.