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Champions League
Referee: D Makkelie
Ath Madrid
T T U T S
1–1
Full-time
Arsenal
S T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Arsenal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,7
1,8
Scored
1,8
0,8
Conceded
1,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 14/12 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,6
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 68%
86%
50%
Both score Ø 60%
86%
33%
Average goals
4,3
2,7
Scored
2,4
2,3
Conceded
1,9
0,4
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,21 xG 1,51
52% Possession 48%
18 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 2
6 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 1
0 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Oct -25 Arsenal – Ath Madrid 4–0

Match report

Ath Madrid Arsenal
44′
⚽ V. Gyokeres 0–1
Half-time 0–1
R. Le Normand 🔁
↦ G. Simeone
46′
Marcos Llorente ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
55′
1–1 J. Alvarez ⚽
56′
58′
🔁 E. Eze
↦ M. Odegaard
68′
🔁 B. Saka
↦ N. Madueke
68′
🔁 L. Trossard
↦ G. Martinelli
69′
🔁 Gabriel Jesus
↦ V. Gyökeres
A. Baena 🔁
↦ J. Alvarez
77′
Dávid Hancko 🟨
78′
80′
ℹ️ Eberechi Eze
VAR: Penalty cancelled
86′
🔁 C. Mosquera
↦ B. White
N. Molina 🔁
↦ J. Cardoso
88′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
14 M. Llorente D
18 M. Pubill D
17 D. Hancko D
3 M. Ruggeri D
20 G. Simeone M
6 Koke M
5 J. Cardoso M
22 A. Lookman M
7 A. Griezmann F
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (12)
31 S. Esquivel
1 J. Musso
9 A. Sorloth
16 N. Molina
21 O. Vargas
32 J. Bonar
4 R. Mendoza
15 C. Lenglet
24 R. Le Normand
10 A. Baena
11 T. Almada
34 J. Diaz

Coach: Diego Simeone

Arsenal

4-3-3
1 D. Raya G
4 B. White D
2 W. Saliba D
6 Gabriel D
5 P. Hincapie D
8 M. Odegaard M
41 D. Rice M
36 M. Zubimendi M
20 N. Madueke F
14 V. Gyökeres F
11 G. Martinelli F
Bench (12)
13 K. Arrizabalaga
35 T. Setford
9 Gabriel Jesus
7 B. Saka
49 M. Lewis-Skelly
3 C. Mosquera
56 M. Dowman
89 M. Salmon
16 C. Norgaard
19 L. Trossard
10 E. Eze
33 R. Calafiori

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Makkelie · 193 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.