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Champions League
Referee: D Orsato
Man City
U S S U S
2–1
Full-time
Dortmund
T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
4,7
2,8
Scored
3,7
1,7
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+2,7
+0,5
This season — Champions League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
4,0
3,0
Scored
4,0
3,0
Conceded
0,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+4,0
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%
12 Shots 5
3 Shots on target 2
7 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
6 Corners 2
0 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Man City Dortmund
Half-time 0–0
Rodri 🟨
53′
56′
⚽ J. Bellingham 0–1
M. Reus
Bernardo Silva 🔁
↦ İ. Gündoğan
58′
J. Álvarez 🔁
↦ R. Mahrez
58′
P. Foden 🔁
↦ J. Grealish
58′
62′
🔁 D. Malen
↦ G. Reyna
78′
🔁 N. Schlotterbeck
↦ A. Modeste
79′
🟨 Donyell Malen
1–1 J. Stones ⚽
K. De Bruyne
80′
2–1 E. Haaland ⚽
João Cancelo
84′
88′
🟨 Salih Özcan
88′
🔁 K. Adeyemi
↦ S. Özcan
88′
🔁 Y. Moukoko
↦ M. Reus
K. Phillips 🔁
↦ E. Haaland
92′
Phil Foden 🟨
94′
94′
🟨 Thomas Meunier
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Man City

4-3-3
31 Ederson G
5 J. Stones D
25 M. Akanji D
6 N. Aké D
7 João Cancelo D
17 K. De Bruyne M
16 Rodri M
8 İ. Gündoğan M
26 R. Mahrez F
9 E. Haaland F
10 J. Grealish F
Bench (11)
20 Bernardo Silva
19 J. Álvarez
47 P. Foden
4 K. Phillips
33 S. Carson
3 Rúben Dias
97 J. Wilson-Esbrand
80 C. Palmer
82 R. Lewis
18 S. Ortega
21 Sergio Gómez

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Dortmund

4-3-3
33 A. Meyer G
24 T. Meunier D
25 N. Süle D
15 M. Hummels D
13 Raphaël Guerreiro D
22 J. Bellingham M
23 E. Can M
6 S. Özcan M
7 G. Reyna F
20 A. Modeste F
11 M. Reus F
Bench (11)
21 D. Malen
4 N. Schlotterbeck
27 K. Adeyemi
18 Y. Moukoko
19 J. Brandt
10 T. Hazard
38 L. Unbehaun
36 T. Rothe
30 F. Passlack
44 S. Coulibaly
17 M. Wolf

Coach: E. Terzić

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Orsato · 98 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.