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Pro League
Referee: W De Cremer
Charleroi
S T T U T
3–1
Full-time
Mechelen
U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Charleroi Mechelen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
3,0
1,5
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
2,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Pro League · 15/12 matches
Win Ø 23%
13%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
47%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
2,7
1,9
Scored
1,0
0,9
Conceded
1,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,74 xG 0,80
34% Possession 66%
16 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 7
1 Offside 3
10 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Charleroi 13. · Mechelen 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 St. Gilloise 13 11 1 1 +20 +14.2 34
2 Cercle Brugge 12 10 0 2 +15 +14.5 30
3 Club Brugge 14 8 3 3 +21 +22.6 27
4 Anderlecht 12 8 3 1 +13 +9.6 27
5 Gent 13 6 5 2 +7 +7.2 23
6 Genk 12 6 4 2 +17 +18.7 22
7 Antwerp 12 5 6 1 +18 +12.4 21
8 Standard 13 4 5 4 -5 -12.4 17
9 Westerlo 15 4 4 7 -4 -5.1 16
10 RWD Molenbeek 16 4 4 8 -19 -18.4 16
11 Mechelen 12 4 3 5 -1 -3.1 15
12 St Truiden 12 3 5 4 -7 -4.2 14
13 Charleroi 15 2 5 8 -11 -10.1 11
14 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 13 2 2 9 -11 -5.5 8
15 Eupen 16 2 2 12 -24 -24.3 8
16 Kortrijk 16 2 2 12 -29 -16.0 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Charleroi Mechelen
1–0 A. Zorgane
I. Mbenza
3′
2–0 Y. Sylla
P. Guiagon
28′
Jonas Bager 🟨
44′
Half-time 2–0
M. Ilaimaharitra 🔁
↦ R. Morioka
46′
46′
🔁 B. Antonio
↦ S. Walsh
Žan Rogelj 🟨
49′
66′
N. Bassette 2–1
D. Foulon
A. Benbouali 🔁
↦ Y. Sylla
67′
70′
🟨 Kerim Mrabti
A. Bernier 🔁
↦ P. Guiagon
78′
80′
🔁 L. Lauberbach
↦ M. Konaté
88′
🔁 P. Pflücke
↦ G. Hairemans
M. Delavallée 🔁
↦ H. Koffi
94′
D. Heymans 🔁
↦ I. Mbenza
94′
3–1 A. Zorgane
D. Heymans
99′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Charleroi

3-4-2-1
16 H. Koffi G
2 J. Bager D
21 S. Andreou D
4 J. Van Cleemput D
29 Ž. Rogelj M
44 R. Morioka M
6 A. Zorgane M
15 V. Dragsnes M
7 I. Mbenza F
8 P. Guiagon F
80 Y. Sylla F
Bench (7)
26 M. Ilaimaharitra
13 A. Benbouali
17 A. Bernier
55 M. Delavallée
18 D. Heymans
25 D. Marcq
9 Oday Dabbagh

Coach: F. Mazzù

Mechelen

3-4-2-1
1 G. Coucke G
30 J. Vanlerberghe D
27 D. Bates D
22 E. Cobbaut D
5 S. Walsh M
8 M. Konaté M
16 R. Schoofs M
23 D. Foulon M
7 G. Hairemans F
19 K. Mrabti F
70 N. Bassette F
Bench (7)
38 B. Antonio
20 L. Lauberbach
77 P. Pflücke
15 Y. Thoelen
39 I. Asante
35 B. Bafdili
6 J. Van Hecke

Coach: B. Hasi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,11
U
3,40
B
3,41
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,97
U2,5
1,82
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

W De Cremer · 93 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.