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Primeira Liga

Referee: R Baixinho

Tondela

U T T U S

2–0

Full-time

Moreirense

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 27%

16%

38%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

50%

53%

Both score Ø 42%

34%

50%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,39 xG 0,29

40% Possession 60%

14 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Tondela 17. · Moreirense 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	33	27	4	2	+47	+39.7	85
2	Sp Lisbon	32	23	7	2	+59	+43.9	76
3	Benfica	32	22	10	0	+47	+36.3	76
4	Sp Braga	32	16	9	7	+28	+21.1	57
5	Famalicao	32	14	10	8	+12	+10.2	52
6	Gil Vicente	32	13	11	8	+14	+9.7	50
7	Guimaraes	32	12	6	14	-9	-6.7	42
8	Moreirense	32	12	6	14	-10	-18.1	42
9	Estoril	33	10	9	14	-1	-9.9	39
10	Alverca	33	10	9	14	-16	-0.9	39
11	Arouca	32	10	6	16	-21	-19.4	36
12	Rio Ave	32	8	11	13	-19	-15.8	35
13	Santa Clara	32	8	9	15	-10	+0.8	33
14	Nacional	32	8	7	17	-8	-12.0	31
15	Estrela	32	6	10	16	-18	-9.3	28
16	Casa Pia	32	5	11	16	-27	-25.3	26
17	Tondela	32	5	10	17	-28	-12.5	25
18	AVS	33	3	11	19	-40	-31.7	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	16	13	3	0	+26	+21.3	42
2	Sp Lisbon	16	12	2	2	+37	+27.8	38
3	Benfica	16	11	5	0	+28	+23.7	38
4	Gil Vicente	16	9	3	4	+13	+7.0	30
5	Sp Braga	16	8	5	3	+16	+13.6	29
6	Famalicao	16	8	4	4	+14	+9.7	28
7	Guimaraes	16	8	4	4	+8	-0.5	28
8	Moreirense	16	8	2	6	-1	-8.1	26
9	Alverca	17	7	5	5	-5	+6.5	26
10	Estoril	16	6	5	5	+5	-5.2	23
11	Arouca	16	6	4	6	-5	-7.0	22
12	Santa Clara	16	6	2	8	-2	+4.0	20
13	Nacional	16	5	2	9	-2	-3.7	17
14	Estrela	16	4	5	7	-3	+1.8	17
15	Rio Ave	16	3	6	7	-9	-2.2	15
16	Casa Pia	16	2	8	6	-8	-11.2	14
17	AVS	17	2	6	9	-12	-14.9	12
18	Tondela	16	1	7	8	-10	-4.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	17	14	1	2	+21	+18.4	43
2	Sp Lisbon	16	11	5	0	+22	+16.1	38
3	Benfica	16	11	5	0	+19	+12.7	38
4	Sp Braga	16	8	4	4	+12	+7.5	28
5	Famalicao	16	6	6	4	-2	+0.5	24
6	Gil Vicente	16	4	8	4	+1	+2.7	20
7	Rio Ave	16	5	5	6	-10	-13.6	20
8	Estoril	17	4	4	9	-6	-4.7	16
9	Moreirense	16	4	4	8	-9	-10.0	16
10	Tondela	16	4	3	9	-18	-7.8	15
11	Nacional	16	3	5	8	-6	-8.4	14
12	Arouca	16	4	2	10	-16	-12.4	14
13	Guimaraes	16	4	2	10	-17	-6.3	14
14	Santa Clara	16	2	7	7	-8	-3.1	13
15	Alverca	16	3	4	9	-11	-7.4	13
16	Casa Pia	16	3	3	10	-19	-14.2	12
17	Estrela	16	2	5	9	-15	-11.1	11
18	AVS	16	1	5	10	-28	-16.9	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.