Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Famalicao
Boavista
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Sp Lisbon
|
23 | 19 | 2 | 2 | +42 | +29.7 | 59 |
| 2 |
Benfica
|
24 | 18 | 4 | 2 | +36 | +27.8 | 58 |
| 3 |
Porto
|
24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | +26 | +19.9 | 52 |
| 4 |
Sp Braga
|
24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | +20 | +16.9 | 49 |
| 5 |
Guimaraes
|
24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | +12 | +5.4 | 44 |
| 6 |
Moreirense
|
24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +1 | +0.4 | 39 |
| 7 |
Arouca
|
24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | +10 | +0.9 | 34 |
| 8 |
Gil Vicente
|
24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -3 | -8.7 | 27 |
| 9 |
Casa Pia
|
24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -13 | -7.6 | 27 |
| 10 |
Farense
|
24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -3 | -9.6 | 26 |
| 11 |
Famalicao
|
22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -5 | -6.8 | 26 |
| 12 |
Boavista
|
23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -14 | -10.4 | 24 |
| 13 |
Rio Ave
|
24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | -9 | +1.5 | 23 |
| 14 |
Portimonense
|
24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -25 | -16.2 | 23 |
| 15 |
Estoril
|
24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | -6 | -9.2 | 22 |
| 16 |
Estrela
|
24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -15 | -10.4 | 22 |
| 17 |
Vizela
|
24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -24 | -9.2 | 18 |
| 18 |
Chaves
|
24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -30 | -14.5 | 18 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Luíz Júnior
G
J. de Haas
D
Francisco Moura
M
Sorriso
F
Gustavo Sá
F
Coach: João Pedro Sousa
João Gonçalves
G
C. Awaziem
D
V. Sasso
D
S. Pérez
M
B. Onyemaechi
M
R. Boženík
F
Coach: Ricardo Paiva
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Arouca
Famalicao
Famalicao
Rio Ave
Farense
Famalicao
Moreirense
Famalicao
Famalicao
Sp Braga
Fábio Melo · 31 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.