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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Guimaraes

T U T T T

2–1

Full-time

Chaves

S T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 35%

41%

29%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

41%

29%

Both score Ø 41%

29%

53%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

18 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 8. · Chaves 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	18	15	2	1	+33	47
2	Sp Braga	17	13	1	3	+26	40
3	Porto	17	12	3	2	+30	39
4	Sp Lisbon	17	10	2	5	+14	32
5	Casa Pia	18	9	3	6	+1	30
6	Arouca	17	7	5	5	-3	26
7	Vizela	18	7	3	8	+4	24
8	Guimaraes	17	7	3	7	-4	24
9	Boavista	17	7	3	7	-7	24
10	Chaves	17	5	7	5	-5	22
11	Rio Ave	18	5	6	7	-5	21
12	Famalicao	18	6	3	9	-6	21
13	Portimonense	18	6	2	10	-10	20
14	Estoril	17	5	4	8	-6	19
15	Gil Vicente	17	5	3	9	-7	18
16	Santa Clara	18	3	5	10	-11	14
17	Maritimo	17	3	4	10	-20	13
18	Pacos Ferreira	18	1	3	14	-24	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	1	0	+21	25
2	Porto	8	7	0	1	+23	21
3	Sp Lisbon	8	7	0	1	+16	21
4	Boavista	10	5	3	2	+0	18
5	Guimaraes	9	5	2	2	+3	17
6	Sp Braga	8	5	1	2	+10	16
7	Arouca	9	5	1	3	+3	16
8	Famalicao	9	5	1	3	+3	16
9	Casa Pia	10	4	2	4	+0	14
10	Vizela	9	4	1	4	+5	13
11	Rio Ave	8	4	1	3	+2	13
12	Portimonense	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	Gil Vicente	9	3	2	4	-2	11
14	Santa Clara	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	Chaves	8	1	5	2	-1	8
16	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	-2	8
17	Estoril	7	2	2	3	-4	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	10	0	2	8	-14	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	9	8	0	1	+16	24
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+12	22
3	Porto	9	5	3	1	+7	18
4	Casa Pia	8	5	1	2	+1	16
5	Chaves	9	4	2	3	-4	14
6	Vizela	9	3	2	4	-1	11
7	Sp Lisbon	9	3	2	4	-2	11
8	Estoril	10	3	2	5	-2	11
9	Arouca	8	2	4	2	-6	10
10	Portimonense	9	3	0	6	-8	9
11	Rio Ave	10	1	5	4	-7	8
12	Gil Vicente	8	2	1	5	-5	7
13	Guimaraes	8	2	1	5	-7	7
14	Boavista	7	2	0	5	-7	6
15	Santa Clara	9	1	2	6	-5	5
16	Famalicao	9	1	2	6	-9	5
17	Maritimo	9	1	2	6	-18	5
18	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	1	6	-10	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.