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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Man United

S S T S T

0–2

Full-time

Burnley

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 37%

39%

35%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

43%

61%

Both score Ø 48%

57%

39%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

72% Possession 28%

24 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 5. · Burnley 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	22	21	1	0	+38	64
2	Man City	24	16	3	5	+38	51
3	Leicester	24	15	3	6	+28	48
4	Chelsea	24	12	4	8	+9	40
5	Man United	23	9	7	7	+9	34
6	Tottenham	24	9	7	8	+6	34
7	Wolves	23	8	10	5	+4	34
8	Sheffield United	24	8	9	7	+2	33
9	Southampton	24	9	4	11	-11	31
10	Arsenal	24	6	12	6	-2	30
11	Crystal Palace	24	7	9	8	-6	30
12	Everton	24	8	6	10	-7	30
13	Newcastle	24	8	6	10	-12	30
14	Burnley	23	8	3	12	-12	27
15	Brighton	24	6	7	11	-7	25
16	Aston Villa	24	7	4	13	-14	25
17	West Ham	23	6	5	12	-11	23
18	Bournemouth	24	6	5	13	-14	23
19	Watford	24	5	8	11	-15	23
20	Norwich	24	4	5	15	-23	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	12	0	0	+22	36
2	Man City	12	8	2	2	+19	26
3	Leicester	12	8	2	2	+12	26
4	Tottenham	12	7	2	3	+11	23
5	Man United	11	6	4	1	+14	22
6	Everton	12	6	3	3	+2	21
7	Newcastle	12	5	4	3	+0	19
8	Chelsea	12	5	3	4	+4	18
9	Burnley	12	6	0	6	-2	18
10	Brighton	12	4	5	3	+3	17
11	Wolves	11	4	5	2	+2	17
12	Sheffield United	12	5	2	5	+2	17
13	Arsenal	12	4	5	3	+0	17
14	Aston Villa	12	5	2	5	-5	17
15	Crystal Palace	12	4	4	4	-2	16
16	Watford	12	3	5	4	-3	14
17	Bournemouth	12	3	4	5	-5	13
18	Norwich	12	3	3	6	-7	12
19	West Ham	11	3	2	6	-3	11
20	Southampton	12	3	2	7	-15	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	9	1	0	+16	28
2	Man City	12	8	1	3	+19	25
3	Leicester	12	7	1	4	+16	22
4	Chelsea	12	7	1	4	+5	22
5	Southampton	12	6	2	4	+4	20
6	Wolves	12	4	5	3	+2	17
7	Sheffield United	12	3	7	2	+0	16
8	Crystal Palace	12	3	5	4	-4	14
9	Arsenal	12	2	7	3	-2	13
10	Man United	12	3	3	6	-5	12
11	West Ham	12	3	3	6	-8	12
12	Tottenham	12	2	5	5	-5	11
13	Newcastle	12	3	2	7	-12	11
14	Bournemouth	12	3	1	8	-9	10
15	Everton	12	2	3	7	-9	9
16	Burnley	11	2	3	6	-10	9
17	Watford	12	2	3	7	-12	9
18	Aston Villa	12	2	2	8	-9	8
19	Brighton	12	2	2	8	-10	8
20	Norwich	12	1	2	9	-16	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.