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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Chelsea

S S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Tottenham

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Tottenham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 41%

48%

34%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

62%

66%

Both score Ø 63%

66%

59%

Average goals

3,1

3,4

Scored

1,8

1,9

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,09 xG 0,79

50% Possession 50%

11 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 6

5 Offside 5

7 Free kicks against 16

5 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 6. · Tottenham 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	30	22	7	1	+43	+41.6	73
2	Arsenal	30	17	10	3	+30	+22.1	61
3	Nott'm Forest	30	17	6	7	+15	+1.7	57
4	Man City	30	15	6	9	+17	+14.4	51
5	Newcastle	29	15	5	9	+10	+10.4	50
6	Chelsea	29	14	7	8	+16	+16.9	49
7	Aston Villa	30	13	9	8	-1	+2.0	48
8	Brighton	30	12	11	7	+3	+2.5	47
9	Fulham	30	12	9	9	+4	+5.3	45
10	Bournemouth	30	12	8	10	+11	+15.0	44
11	Brentford	30	12	5	13	+4	-0.3	41
12	Crystal Palace	29	10	10	9	+3	+8.5	40
13	Man United	30	10	7	13	-4	-5.2	37
14	Tottenham	29	10	4	15	+12	-1.1	34
15	Everton	30	7	13	10	-5	-4.3	34
16	West Ham	30	9	7	14	-17	-9.8	34
17	Wolves	30	8	5	17	-17	-14.8	29
18	Ipswich	30	4	8	18	-33	-31.9	20
19	Leicester	30	4	5	21	-42	-31.0	17
20	Southampton	30	2	4	24	-49	-42.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	2	1	+21	+20.6	38
2	Arsenal	15	10	4	1	+18	+16.4	34
3	Nott'm Forest	15	9	4	2	+14	+4.4	31
4	Man City	15	9	3	3	+13	+13.4	30
5	Chelsea	14	8	4	2	+12	+14.5	28
6	Aston Villa	15	7	7	1	+7	+11.7	28
7	Newcastle	14	8	2	4	+8	+6.2	26
8	Brentford	15	7	3	5	+3	+3.7	24
9	Brighton	15	6	6	3	+2	+4.2	24
10	Fulham	15	6	5	4	+1	+2.1	23
11	Bournemouth	15	6	3	6	+5	+9.5	21
12	Man United	15	6	2	7	-4	-0.6	20
13	Everton	15	4	7	4	+3	+1.4	19
14	Tottenham	15	5	3	7	+4	-0.6	18
15	Crystal Palace	15	4	5	6	-5	+6.9	17
16	West Ham	15	5	2	8	-10	-7.2	17
17	Wolves	15	4	2	9	-8	-6.1	14
18	Leicester	15	2	3	10	-19	-11.6	9
19	Ipswich	15	1	4	10	-22	-12.0	7
20	Southampton	15	1	2	12	-29	-22.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	10	5	0	+22	+21.0	35
2	Arsenal	15	7	6	2	+12	+5.8	27
3	Nott'm Forest	15	8	2	5	+1	-2.7	26
4	Newcastle	15	7	3	5	+2	+4.3	24
5	Crystal Palace	14	6	5	3	+8	+1.7	23
6	Bournemouth	15	6	5	4	+6	+5.5	23
7	Brighton	15	6	5	4	+1	-1.8	23
8	Fulham	15	6	4	5	+3	+3.2	22
9	Chelsea	15	6	3	6	+4	+2.4	21
10	Man City	15	6	3	6	+4	+1.0	21
11	Aston Villa	15	6	2	7	-8	-9.7	20
12	Brentford	15	5	2	8	+1	-4.0	17
13	Man United	15	4	5	6	+0	-4.6	17
14	West Ham	15	4	5	6	-7	-2.6	17
15	Tottenham	14	5	1	8	+8	-0.5	16
16	Everton	15	3	6	6	-8	-5.7	15
17	Wolves	15	4	3	8	-9	-8.7	15
18	Ipswich	15	3	4	8	-11	-19.9	13
19	Leicester	15	2	2	11	-23	-19.4	8
20	Southampton	15	1	2	12	-20	-19.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.