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Taça de Portugal

Referee: António Nobre

Sp Lisbon

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Rio Ave

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Taça de Portugal · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 88%

100%

75%

Points per game

3,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

75%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,3

3,8

Scored

2,8

2,5

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+1,3

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

61% Possession 39%

18 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Rio Ave 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tirsense	5	5	0	0	+7	15
2	São João Ver	6	4	1	1	+7	13
3	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+12	12
4	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+9	12
5	Rebordosa	5	4	0	1	+5	12
6	Rio Ave	4	3	1	0	+5	10
7	O Elvas	5	3	1	1	+1	10
8	Amarante	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Gil Vicente	4	3	0	1	+4	9
10	Cinfães	4	3	0	1	+3	9
11	Oliveira Hospital	4	3	0	1	+3	9
12	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+3	9
13	Lusitânia	4	3	0	1	+1	9
14	Alverca	3	2	1	0	+4	7
15	Brito	4	2	1	1	+1	7
16	Vila Real	4	2	1	1	+1	7
17	Casa Pia	3	2	0	1	+6	6
18	SC Covilha	3	2	0	1	+4	6
19	Anadia	3	2	0	1	+3	6
20	Moncarapachense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
21	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+3	6
22	Varzim	3	2	0	1	+3	6
23	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
24	Moura	3	2	0	1	+2	6
25	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
26	Farense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
27	Moreirense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
28	União de Leiria	3	2	0	1	+1	6
29	Chaves	3	2	0	1	+1	6
30	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+1	6
31	Lusitânia Lourosa	3	2	0	1	+0	6
32	Leixoes	3	2	0	1	+0	6
33	Maria da Fonte	3	2	0	1	-3	6
34	Lusitano Évora 1911	4	1	2	1	+0	5
35	Sanjoanense	3	1	1	1	+3	4
36	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
37	Caldas	3	1	1	1	+0	4
38	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+4	3
39	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
40	Penafiel	2	1	0	1	+2	3
41	Alcains	2	1	0	1	+2	3
42	Porto	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+2	3
44	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
45	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+2	3
46	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
47	AVS	2	1	0	1	+1	3
48	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
50	Machico	2	1	0	1	+1	3
51	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
52	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+1	3
53	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
54	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Os Limianos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Aliança de Gandra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Vieira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
67	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
69	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
70	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
71	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
72	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	-1	3
73	CF Benfica	2	1	0	1	-2	3
74	Paredes	2	1	0	1	-2	3
75	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
76	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
77	Pêro Pinheiro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
78	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
79	Estrela	2	1	0	1	-5	3
80	Lajense	3	1	0	2	-5	3
81	AD Marco 09	2	0	2	0	+0	2
82	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
86	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
87	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
88	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
89	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
90	União de Coimbra	2	0	1	1	-2	1
91	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
116	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
117	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
118	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
119	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
130	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
131	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
132	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
137	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
138	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
139	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
140	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
141	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
142	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
143	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
144	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
145	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
146	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tirsense	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Oliveira Hospital	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Brito	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+8	6
5	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	SC Covilha	3	2	0	1	+4	6
7	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Varzim	3	2	0	1	+3	6
12	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
13	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
14	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
15	O Elvas	3	2	0	1	+0	6
16	Lusitano Évora 1911	3	1	2	0	+1	5
17	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+3	4
18	Vila Real	3	1	1	1	+0	4
19	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+5	3
20	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
24	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Anadia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Caldas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
51	Leixoes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
52	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
53	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
54	Maria da Fonte	2	1	0	1	-4	3
55	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
56	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Penafiel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Famalicao	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Arronches e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Farense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
93	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Rio Ave	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	São João Ver	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Farense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Lusitânia	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Rebordosa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Amarante	3	2	0	1	-1	6
13	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
14	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
15	O Elvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
16	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+5	3
17	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
18	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
19	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Porto	2	1	0	1	+2	3
23	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	AVS	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Cinfães	2	1	0	1	-1	3
45	Chaves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
46	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
47	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
48	Estrela	2	1	0	1	-5	3
49	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Aliança de Gandra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Brito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Moura	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Vieira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
91	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
92	CF Benfica	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
96	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
97	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
99	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
100	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
101	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
102	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
103	Lajense	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.