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Premier League

Referee: S Barrott

Crystal Palace

T S S T S

4–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crystal Palace Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 26/27 matches

Win Ø 36%

31%

41%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

42%

67%

Both score Ø 62%

54%

70%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

4,31 xG 0,38

36% Possession 64%

19 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 8

7 Offside 7

19 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Crystal Palace 13. · Aston Villa 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	27	19	7	1	+38	+35.6	64
2	Arsenal	26	15	8	3	+28	+19.6	53
3	Nott'm Forest	26	14	5	7	+11	+2.5	47
4	Man City	26	13	5	8	+15	+11.6	44
5	Newcastle	26	13	5	8	+10	+11.4	44
6	Bournemouth	26	12	7	7	+14	+13.8	43
7	Chelsea	26	12	7	7	+12	+13.8	43
8	Aston Villa	27	11	9	7	-2	+5.1	42
9	Brighton	26	10	10	6	+4	+0.9	40
10	Fulham	26	10	9	7	+3	+7.0	39
11	Brentford	26	11	4	11	+5	+0.7	37
12	Tottenham	26	10	3	13	+15	+0.4	33
13	Crystal Palace	26	8	9	9	-1	+2.5	33
14	Everton	26	7	10	9	-4	-4.3	31
15	Man United	26	8	6	12	-7	-5.2	30
16	West Ham	26	8	6	12	-17	-10.1	30
17	Wolves	26	6	4	16	-18	-12.6	22
18	Ipswich	26	3	8	15	-30	-29.0	17
19	Leicester	26	4	5	17	-34	-26.5	17
20	Southampton	26	2	3	21	-42	-37.2	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	9	2	1	+16	+14.6	29
2	Arsenal	13	8	4	1	+16	+14.5	28
3	Aston Villa	15	7	7	1	+7	+11.7	28
4	Man City	13	8	2	3	+11	+11.6	26
5	Nott'm Forest	12	7	3	2	+12	+6.3	24
6	Newcastle	13	7	2	4	+7	+6.4	23
7	Brentford	13	7	2	4	+4	+4.1	23
8	Chelsea	12	6	4	2	+7	+11.0	22
9	Bournemouth	13	6	3	4	+7	+8.0	21
10	Fulham	14	5	5	4	-1	+2.1	20
11	Everton	14	4	6	4	+3	+1.2	18
12	Brighton	12	4	6	2	+3	+3.0	18
13	Tottenham	13	5	2	6	+5	+0.9	17
14	Man United	13	5	1	7	-5	+0.3	16
15	West Ham	13	4	2	7	-11	-7.5	14
16	Crystal Palace	13	2	5	6	-9	+1.1	11
17	Wolves	12	3	1	8	-8	-4.9	10
18	Leicester	14	2	3	9	-16	-11.9	9
19	Ipswich	14	1	4	9	-20	-10.9	7
20	Southampton	13	1	1	11	-28	-23.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	10	5	0	+22	+21.0	35
2	Arsenal	13	7	4	2	+12	+5.1	25
3	Nott'm Forest	14	7	2	5	-1	-3.8	23
4	Crystal Palace	13	6	4	3	+8	+1.3	22
5	Bournemouth	13	6	4	3	+7	+5.8	22
6	Brighton	14	6	4	4	+1	-2.1	22
7	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	+5	+2.8	21
8	Newcastle	13	6	3	4	+3	+5.0	21
9	Fulham	12	5	4	3	+4	+4.9	19
10	Man City	13	5	3	5	+4	+0.1	18
11	Tottenham	13	5	1	7	+10	-0.5	16
12	West Ham	13	4	4	5	-6	-2.6	16
13	Brentford	13	4	2	7	+1	-3.4	14
14	Man United	13	3	5	5	-2	-5.4	14
15	Aston Villa	12	4	2	6	-9	-6.7	14
16	Everton	12	3	4	5	-7	-5.5	13
17	Wolves	14	3	3	8	-10	-7.6	12
18	Ipswich	12	2	4	6	-10	-18.1	10
19	Leicester	12	2	2	8	-18	-14.6	8
20	Southampton	13	1	2	10	-14	-13.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.