Serie A
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Inter
Lazio
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Milan
|
21 | 15 | 3 | 3 | +23 | 48 |
| 2 |
Inter
|
19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | +34 | 46 |
| 3 |
Napoli
|
21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | +22 | 43 |
| 4 |
Atalanta
|
20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | +18 | 41 |
| 5 |
Juventus
|
21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | +11 | 38 |
| 6 |
Fiorentina
|
19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | +9 | 32 |
| 7 |
Roma
|
21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | +7 | 32 |
| 8 |
Lazio
|
20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | +5 | 32 |
| 9 |
Sassuolo
|
21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | +3 | 28 |
| 10 |
Empoli
|
21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -8 | 28 |
| 11 |
Verona
|
20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | +3 | 27 |
| 12 |
Bologna
|
19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | -4 | 27 |
| 13 |
Torino
|
19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | +4 | 25 |
| 14 |
Udinese
|
19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -6 | 20 |
| 15 |
Sampdoria
|
21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -10 | 20 |
| 16 |
Spezia
|
21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -20 | 19 |
| 17 |
Venezia
|
20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -19 | 17 |
| 18 |
Cagliari
|
20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -22 | 13 |
| 19 |
Genoa
|
21 | 1 | 9 | 11 | -19 | 12 |
| 20 |
Salernitana
|
18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | -31 | 8 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
S. de Vrij
D
M. Škriniar
D
D. Dumfries
M
A. Bastoni
D
I. Perišić
M
R. Gagliardini
M
N. Barella
M
Lautaro Martínez
F
Coach: S. Inzaghi
T. Strakosha
G
A. Marušić
D
D. Cataldi
M
T. Bašić
M
Coach: M. Sarri
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Inter
Torino
Salernitana
Inter
Inter
Cagliari
Roma
Inter
Inter
Spezia
L Pairetto · 119 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.