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La Liga

Referee: Francisco Hernández

Alaves

U U U T S

1–1

Full-time

Celta

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 30%

25%

35%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

60%

65%

Both score Ø 63%

60%

65%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,95 xG 0,12

50% Possession 50%

3 Shots 5

1 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 17. · Celta 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	21	15	4	2	+30	+23.0	49
2	Ath Madrid	21	13	6	2	+21	+18.9	45
3	Barcelona	21	13	3	5	+35	+25.6	42
4	Ath Bilbao	21	11	7	3	+13	+10.1	40
5	Villarreal	21	9	7	5	+7	+12.9	34
6	Mallorca	21	9	3	9	-7	-1.0	30
7	Vallecano	21	7	8	6	+1	-1.5	29
8	Girona	21	8	4	9	+0	+2.5	28
9	Sociedad	21	8	4	9	+0	+1.8	28
10	Betis	21	7	7	7	-3	+3.7	28
11	Osasuna	21	6	9	6	-5	-6.4	27
12	Sevilla	21	7	6	8	-6	-3.3	27
13	Celta	20	7	3	10	-3	+6.1	24
14	Getafe	21	5	8	8	+0	-4.2	23
15	Las Palmas	21	6	5	10	-8	-21.2	23
16	Leganes	21	5	8	8	-10	-19.3	23
17	Alaves	20	5	5	10	-8	-3.4	20
18	Espanol	21	5	5	11	-13	-16.4	20
19	Valencia	21	3	7	11	-16	-11.1	16
20	Valladolid	21	4	3	14	-28	-17.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	9	0	1	+18	+17.0	27
2	Ath Madrid	11	8	3	0	+14	+17.5	27
3	Ath Bilbao	11	6	4	1	+9	+5.6	22
4	Celta	11	6	2	3	+7	+4.4	20
5	Osasuna	11	5	4	2	+4	+2.6	19
6	Barcelona	9	6	0	3	+18	+18.2	18
7	Espanol	11	5	3	3	+2	-3.4	18
8	Sevilla	11	5	3	3	+0	+2.0	18
9	Villarreal	10	4	4	2	+5	+5.0	16
10	Girona	10	5	1	4	+4	+6.3	16
11	Betis	10	4	4	2	+2	+10.1	16
12	Getafe	11	3	6	2	+3	+3.0	15
13	Vallecano	10	4	3	3	+1	+4.3	15
14	Mallorca	11	4	3	4	-3	-2.5	15
15	Sociedad	11	4	2	5	-2	+2.8	14
16	Las Palmas	11	3	4	4	-1	-6.1	13
17	Leganes	10	4	1	5	-6	-6.5	13
18	Valencia	10	3	3	4	+1	-0.7	12
19	Alaves	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.2	12
20	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	-8	-7.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	7	3	2	+17	+7.4	24
2	Real Madrid	11	6	4	1	+12	+6.0	22
3	Ath Madrid	10	5	3	2	+7	+1.4	18
4	Ath Bilbao	10	5	3	2	+4	+4.5	18
5	Villarreal	11	5	3	3	+2	+7.9	18
6	Mallorca	10	5	0	5	-4	+1.6	15
7	Sociedad	10	4	2	4	+2	-0.9	14
8	Vallecano	11	3	5	3	+0	-5.8	14
9	Girona	11	3	3	5	-4	-3.8	12
10	Betis	11	3	3	5	-5	-6.4	12
11	Leganes	11	1	7	3	-4	-12.8	10
12	Las Palmas	10	3	1	6	-7	-15.1	10
13	Sevilla	10	2	3	5	-6	-5.3	9
14	Getafe	10	2	2	6	-3	-7.2	8
15	Alaves	11	2	2	7	-7	-2.2	8
16	Osasuna	10	1	5	4	-9	-8.9	8
17	Celta	9	1	1	7	-10	+1.8	4
18	Valencia	11	0	4	7	-17	-10.4	4
19	Valladolid	10	1	0	9	-20	-9.6	3
20	Espanol	10	0	2	8	-15	-13.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.