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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Aston Villa

U S S S S

0–3

Full-time

Leeds

T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

2,3

2,2

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 4/5 matches

Win Ø 70%

100%

40%

Points per game

3,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

50%

40%

Both score Ø 43%

25%

60%

Average goals

3,5

3,6

Scored

3,0

1,8

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

12 Shots 27

4 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

14 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 2. · Leeds 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Aston Villa	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Liverpool	5	3	1	1	+0	10
4	Leicester	5	3	0	2	+4	9
5	Arsenal	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	Wolves	5	3	0	2	-2	9
7	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+7	8
8	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+4	8
9	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+4	7
10	Leeds	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Man City	4	2	1	1	+0	7
12	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-1	7
13	Newcastle	5	2	1	2	-2	7
14	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-2	7
15	Man United	4	2	0	2	-3	6
16	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	West Brom	5	0	2	3	-8	2
18	Burnley	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Sheffield United	5	0	1	4	-5	1
20	Fulham	5	0	1	4	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	4
6	Leeds	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Leicester	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Man City	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	West Brom	3	0	2	1	-3	2
16	Sheffield United	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Brighton	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-6	0
20	Man United	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Man United	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Wolves	3	2	0	1	-1	6
7	West Ham	3	1	1	1	+2	4
8	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Brighton	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-3	4
14	Arsenal	3	1	0	2	+0	3
15	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Fulham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	West Brom	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.