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Bundesliga

Referee: B Steinhaus

Union Berlin

T U T U S

1–0

Full-time

Paderborn

U U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Paderborn

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,5

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 23%

32%

13%

Points per game

1,1

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

55%

58%

Both score Ø 63%

58%

68%

Average goals

2,9

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%

14 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

1 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 14. · Paderborn 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	31	23	4	4	+61	73
2	Dortmund	31	20	6	5	+47	66
3	RB Leipzig	31	17	11	3	+45	62
4	M'gladbach	32	18	5	9	+23	59
5	Leverkusen	31	17	6	8	+16	57
6	Wolfsburg	32	12	10	10	+3	46
7	Hoffenheim	31	12	7	12	-10	43
8	Freiburg	31	11	9	11	-2	42
9	Schalke 04	31	9	12	10	-12	39
10	Ein Frankfurt	31	11	5	15	-3	38
11	Hertha	31	10	8	13	-11	38
12	FC Koln	31	10	5	16	-11	35
13	Augsburg	31	9	8	14	-15	35
14	Union Berlin	31	10	5	16	-17	35
15	Mainz	31	9	4	18	-24	31
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	31	6	10	15	-28	28
17	Werder Bremen	31	7	7	17	-29	28
18	Paderborn	31	4	8	19	-33	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	12	2	2	+36	38
2	Dortmund	15	11	3	1	+35	36
3	M'gladbach	16	11	2	3	+18	35
4	RB Leipzig	15	7	7	1	+19	28
5	Leverkusen	15	7	4	4	+7	25
6	Freiburg	15	7	2	6	+1	23
7	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	4	5	+7	22
8	Schalke 04	16	5	7	4	-4	22
9	FC Koln	16	6	3	7	+1	21
10	Union Berlin	15	6	3	6	+0	21
11	Augsburg	15	5	5	5	+2	20
12	Wolfsburg	16	4	7	5	+0	19
13	Hoffenheim	16	6	1	9	-15	19
14	Hertha	16	5	3	8	-11	18
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	4	5	7	-10	17
16	Mainz	16	4	2	10	-13	14
17	Paderborn	16	2	2	12	-23	8
18	Werder Bremen	15	1	3	11	-25	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	2	2	+25	35
2	RB Leipzig	16	10	4	2	+26	34
3	Leverkusen	16	10	2	4	+9	32
4	Dortmund	16	9	3	4	+12	30
5	Wolfsburg	16	8	3	5	+3	27
6	M'gladbach	16	7	3	6	+5	24
7	Hoffenheim	15	6	6	3	+5	24
8	Werder Bremen	16	6	4	6	-4	22
9	Hertha	15	5	5	5	+0	20
10	Freiburg	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Schalke 04	15	4	5	6	-8	17
12	Mainz	15	5	2	8	-11	17
13	Ein Frankfurt	16	5	1	10	-10	16
14	Augsburg	16	4	3	9	-17	15
15	FC Koln	15	4	2	9	-12	14
16	Union Berlin	16	4	2	10	-17	14
17	Paderborn	15	2	6	7	-10	12
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	2	5	8	-18	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.