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Premiership
Referee: J Beaton
Dundee
S T
2–1
Full-time
Kilmarnock
U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dundee Kilmarnock
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
2,0
3,7
Scored
1,5
2,3
Conceded
0,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,0
This season — Premiership · 2/38 matches
Win Ø 38%
50%
26%
Points per game
1,5
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
50%
39%
Both score Ø 20%
0%
39%
Average goals
2,0
2,6
Scored
1,5
1,1
Conceded
0,5
1,4
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%
8 Shots 4
5 Shots on target 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 3
2 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Rangers 38 32 6 0 +79 102
2 Celtic 38 22 11 5 +49 77
3 Hibernian 38 18 9 11 +13 63
4 Aberdeen 38 15 11 12 -2 56
5 St Mirren 38 11 12 15 -8 45
6 ST Johnstone 38 11 12 15 -10 45
7 Livingston 38 12 9 17 -12 45
8 Motherwell 38 12 9 17 -16 45
9 Dundee United 38 10 14 14 -18 44
10 Ross County 38 11 6 21 -31 39
11 Kilmarnock 38 10 6 22 -11 36
12 Hamilton 38 7 9 22 -33 30

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dundee Kilmarnock
1–0 J. McGhee ⚽
6′
41′
🟨 R. Millen
Half-time 2–0
2–0 C. Adam ⚽
P. McMullan
47′
49′
🟨 C. Burke
54′
🟨 K. Broadfoot
57′
🔁 G. Kiltie
↦ R. McKenzie
C. Elliot 🔁
↦ J. Marshall
67′
P. McMullan 🔁
↦ O. Sow
73′
77′
⚽ B. Haunstrup 2–1
D. Mullen 🔁
↦ D. McDaid
80′
O. Sow 🟨
86′
S. Byrne 🟨
87′
C. Adam 🟨
92′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Dundee

4-2-3-1
13 Adam Legzdins G
16 Christie Elliot D
14 Lee Ashcroft M
4 Liam Fontaine M
2 Cammy Kerr D
3 Jordan McGhee D
8 Shaun Byrne M
10 Paul McGowan F
26 Charlie Adam M
18 Paul McMullan M
9 Danny Mullen F
Bench (7)
12 Callum Ferie
23 Jordan Marshall
24 Max Anderson
11 Declan McDaid
35 Jason Cummings
7 Alex Jakubiak
21 Osman Sow

Coach: J. McPake

Kilmarnock

4-2-3-1
16 Colin Doyle G
22 Ross Millen D
5 Kirk Broadfoot D
14 Zeno Ibsen Rossi D
3 Brandon Haunstrup D
6 Alan Power M
8 Gary Dicker M
29 Chris Burke M
10 Greg Kiltie M
19 Mitchell Pinnock M
28 Kyle Lafferty F
Bench (8)
23 Danny Rogers
2 Aaron McGowan
24 Zech Medley
18 Calum Waters
26 Diaguely Dabo
7 Rory McKenzie
27 Aaron Tshibola
9 George Oakley

Coach: T. Wright

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Beaton · 161 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.