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Taça de Portugal

Urzelinense

0–6

Full-time

Atlético Malveira

U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Peniche	1	1	0	0	+8	3
2	Sacavenense	1	1	0	0	+7	3
3	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+6	3
4	Ovarense	1	1	0	0	+6	3
5	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Naval 1893	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Gouveia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Correlhã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Brito	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Oriental Lisboa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Machico	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Comércio Indústria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Monção	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Castrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Vila Caíz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Espinho	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Celoricense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Nazarenos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Charneca Caparica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
71	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0
72	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
73	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Peniche	1	1	0	0	+8	3
2	Sacavenense	1	1	0	0	+7	3
3	Ovarense	1	1	0	0	+6	3
4	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Naval 1893	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Gouveia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Correlhã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Oriental Lisboa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Comércio Indústria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Castrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Vila Caíz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Celoricense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Nazarenos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Charneca Caparica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Brito	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Machico	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Monção	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Espinho	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
31	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
34	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
35	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
36	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
37	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

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B ✓

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Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

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U1,5

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O2,5 ✓

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U2,5

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O3,5 ✓

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U3,5

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Both teams to score

BLS ja

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BLS nei ✓

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The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Odds comparison

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