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Championship
Referee: G Ward
Portsmouth
S S T T U
1–2
Full-time
Swansea
T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portsmouth Swansea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
2,5
2,3
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 35/36 matches
Win Ø 34%
29%
39%
Points per game
1,1
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
43%
44%
Both score Ø 51%
51%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,4
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,94 xG 0,71
59% Possession 41%
9 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 0
2 Offside 3
9 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Portsmouth 20. · Swansea 14.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Coventry 36 22 8 6 +36 +26.1 74
2 Ipswich 35 18 10 7 +26 +26.2 64
3 Middlesbrough 33 18 8 7 +16 +14.7 62
4 Millwall 34 18 8 8 +9 +8.8 62
5 Wrexham 35 15 12 8 +9 -1.3 57
6 Hull 33 17 6 10 +8 -18.3 57
7 Derby 36 15 9 12 +7 +0.2 54
8 Southampton 33 14 10 9 +15 +16.5 52
9 Watford 35 13 12 10 +4 +7.2 51
10 Bristol City 36 14 8 14 +2 -1.5 50
11 Sheffield United 36 15 4 17 +2 +12.7 49
12 Birmingham 36 13 10 13 -1 +13.9 49
13 Preston 36 12 13 11 -1 -13.2 49
14 Swansea 36 14 7 15 -1 -4.5 49
15 Stoke 36 13 8 15 +3 -10.3 47
16 QPR 36 13 8 15 -12 -2.4 47
17 Norwich 35 13 6 16 +3 -4.3 45
18 Charlton 36 11 11 14 -10 -12.7 44
19 Leicester 36 10 11 15 -9 -16.8 41
20 Portsmouth 35 10 10 15 -10 -0.5 40
21 Blackburn 36 10 9 17 -13 +4.8 39
22 West Brom 36 9 9 18 -18 +4.4 36
23 Oxford 36 8 11 17 -14 -10.9 35
24 Sheffield Weds 36 1 8 27 -51 -39.0 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Portsmouth Swansea
26′
E. Galbraith 0–1
J. Tymon
33′
🟨 Žan Vipotnik
39′
J. Key 0–2
Ronald
Half-time 0–2
C. Chaplin 🔁
↦ M. Alli
46′
59′
🔁 M. Widell
↦ E. Galbraith
59′
🔁 L. Cullen
↦ Z. Vipotnik
1–2 J. Brown
Z. Swanson
64′
Madiodio Dia 🟨
69′
70′
🔁 J. Ward
↦ J. Key
70′
🔁 M. Stamenic
↦ G. Franco
71′
🟨 Joel Ward
A. Segecic 🔁
↦ J. Brown
76′
83′
🔁 M. Yalcouye
↦ J. Eom
J. Swift 🔁
↦ M. Dia
84′
H. Blair 🔁
↦ E. Adams
88′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Portsmouth

4-2-3-1
1 N. Schmid G
24 T. Devlin D
55 M. Dia D
3 C. Ogilvie D
22 Z. Swanson D
7 M. Pack M
38 E. Adams M
47 G. Caballero M
40 J. Brown M
27 M. Alli M
9 C. Bishop F
Bench (9)
26 J. Bursik
8 J. Swift
16 L. Le Roux
10 A. Segecic
29 H. Blair
14 H. Matthews
36 C. Chaplin
2 J. Williams
17 I. Bowat

Coach: John Mousinho

Swansea

4-3-3
22 L. Vigouroux G
2 J. Key D
5 B. Cabango D
15 C. Burgess D
14 J. Tymon D
17 G. Franco M
4 J. Fulton M
30 E. Galbraith M
35 Ronald F
9 Z. Vipotnik F
10 J. Eom F
Bench (9)
1 A. Fisher
25 J. Ward
7 M. Widell
8 M. Yalcouye
20 L. Cullen
31 O. Cooper
6 M. Stamenic
21 L. Walta
18 Gustavo Nunes

Coach: Vitor Emanuel Soares Matos

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,19
U
3,24
B ✓
3,30
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,24
U2,5
1,60
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

G Ward · 178 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.