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NM-cupen

Referee: S Hauge

Vard

U T S S

1–4

Full-time

Stromsgodset

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vard Stromsgodset

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,8

2,5

Scored

2,8

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

This season — NM-cupen · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Vard 15. · Stromsgodset 27. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	KFUM Oslo	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Ham-Kam	2	2	0	0	+13	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	+12	6
4	Molde	2	2	0	0	+10	6
5	Odd	2	2	0	0	+9	6
6	Aalesund	2	2	0	0	+9	6
7	Alta	2	2	0	0	+8	6
8	Viking	2	2	0	0	+7	6
9	Mjondalen	2	2	0	0	+6	6
10	Ranheim	2	2	0	0	+5	6
11	Start	2	2	0	0	+5	6
12	Bærum	2	2	0	0	+5	6
13	Sarpsborg 08	2	2	0	0	+4	6
14	Raufoss	2	2	0	0	+4	6
15	Vard	2	2	0	0	+4	6
16	Bodo/Glimt	2	2	0	0	+4	6
17	Jerv	2	2	0	0	+4	6
18	Kristiansund	2	2	0	0	+4	6
19	Fredrikstad	2	2	0	0	+4	6
20	Sotra	2	2	0	0	+3	6
21	Haugesund	2	2	0	0	+3	6
22	Sogndal	2	2	0	0	+3	6
23	Stjørdals-Blink	2	2	0	0	+3	6
24	Moss	2	2	0	0	+3	6
25	Valerenga	2	2	0	0	+2	6
26	Brattvåg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
27	Stromsgodset	2	2	0	0	+2	6
28	Asane	3	2	0	1	+0	6
29	Tromso	2	1	1	0	+8	4
30	Gjøvik-Lyn	2	1	1	0	+4	4
31	Kongsvinger	2	1	1	0	+2	4
32	Kjelsås	2	1	1	0	+2	4
33	Ull/Kisa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
34	Tromsdalen Uil	2	1	1	0	+1	4
35	Arendal	2	1	0	1	+7	3
36	Sandnes ULF	2	1	0	1	+4	3
37	Junkeren	2	1	0	1	+4	3
38	hodd	2	1	0	1	+4	3
39	Lillestrom	2	1	0	1	+3	3
40	Levanger	2	1	0	1	+3	3
41	Ørn Horten	2	1	0	1	+3	3
42	Stabaek	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Grorud	2	1	0	1	+2	3
44	Frigg	2	1	0	1	+1	3
45	Skjervøy	2	1	0	1	+1	3
46	Bryne	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Stord	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Fana	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Gjelleråsen	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	Rosenborg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Lyn	2	1	0	1	+0	3
52	Lysekloster	2	1	0	1	+0	3
53	Strindheim	2	1	0	1	-1	3
54	Notodden	2	1	0	1	-1	3
55	Halsen	2	1	0	1	-1	3
56	Skeid	2	1	0	1	-1	3
57	Kvik Halden	2	1	0	1	-1	3
58	Vidar	2	1	0	1	-1	3
59	Fjøra	2	1	0	1	-3	3
60	Byåsen	2	1	0	1	-4	3
61	Melhus	2	1	0	1	-4	3
62	Mjølner	2	1	0	1	-6	3
63	Lokomotiv Oslo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Eidsvold	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Sandefjord	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Follo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Eik-Tønsberg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
68	Strommen	2	0	1	1	-2	1
69	Træff	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Bjarg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Fløya	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Loddefjord	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Herd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Brodd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Lørenskog	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Staal Jørpeland	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Kråkerøy	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Drøbak / Frogn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Trygg/Lade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Råde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Nordstrand	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Nardo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Os	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Heming	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Harstad	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Lillehammer	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Egersund	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Finnsnes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Fyllingsdalen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Førde	1	0	0	1	-2	0
91	Rosseland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
92	Sandviken	1	0	0	1	-2	0
93	Funnefoss / Vormsund	1	0	0	1	-2	0
94	Fram	1	0	0	1	-2	0
95	Pors Grenland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
96	Asker	1	0	0	1	-2	0
97	Flekkerøy	1	0	0	1	-2	0
98	Kolstad	1	0	0	1	-2	0
99	Rana	1	0	0	1	-2	0
100	Holmlia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	Tomrefjord	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Brumunddal	1	0	0	1	-3	0
103	Ullern	1	0	0	1	-3	0
104	Hønefoss	1	0	0	1	-3	0
105	Verdal	1	0	0	1	-3	0
106	Skjetten	1	0	0	1	-3	0
107	Sprint-Jeløy	1	0	0	1	-3	0
108	Mandalskameratene	1	0	0	1	-3	0
109	Mosjøen	1	0	0	1	-3	0
110	Elverum	1	0	0	1	-4	0
111	Drammens BK	1	0	0	1	-4	0
112	Surnadal	1	0	0	1	-4	0
113	Floro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
114	Flint	1	0	0	1	-4	0
115	Åssiden IF	1	0	0	1	-4	0
116	Eid	1	0	0	1	-4	0
117	Skedsmo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
118	Djerv	1	0	0	1	-5	0
119	Innstranden	1	0	0	1	-5	0
120	Orkla	1	0	0	1	-5	0
121	Frøya	1	0	0	1	-5	0
122	Spjelkavik	1	0	0	1	-5	0
123	Nybergsund	1	0	0	1	-5	0
124	Forus og Gausel	1	0	0	1	-5	0
125	Urædd	1	0	0	1	-6	0
126	Bossekop	1	0	0	1	-7	0
127	Randesund	1	0	0	1	-8	0
128	Hammerfest IF Stein	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vard	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Alta	1	1	0	0	+7	3
3	Junkeren	2	1	0	1	+4	3
4	Bærum	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	KFUM Oslo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Kjelsås	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Frigg	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Ull/Kisa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Stjørdals-Blink	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Sotra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Brattvåg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Stord	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Gjelleråsen	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Lysekloster	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Strindheim	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Halsen	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Fjøra	2	1	0	1	-3	3
18	Melhus	2	1	0	1	-4	3
19	Mjølner	2	1	0	1	-6	3
20	Lokomotiv Oslo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Gjøvik-Lyn	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Eidsvold	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Follo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Tromsdalen Uil	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Eik-Tønsberg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Bjarg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Fløya	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Skjervøy	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Loddefjord	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Grorud	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Lyn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Herd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Brodd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Staal Jørpeland	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Kråkerøy	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Drøbak / Frogn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Arendal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Trygg/Lade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Råde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Nordstrand	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Ørn Horten	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Fana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Nardo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Heming	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Lillehammer	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Strommen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Finnsnes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Fyllingsdalen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Førde	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Rosseland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Funnefoss / Vormsund	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Levanger	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Kvik Halden	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Pors Grenland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Asker	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Vidar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Flekkerøy	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Rana	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Holmlia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Tomrefjord	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Notodden	1	0	0	1	-3	0
62	Brumunddal	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Hønefoss	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Verdal	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Skjetten	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Sprint-Jeløy	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Mandalskameratene	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Mosjøen	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Elverum	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	Drammens BK	1	0	0	1	-4	0
71	Surnadal	1	0	0	1	-4	0
72	Flint	1	0	0	1	-4	0
73	Åssiden IF	1	0	0	1	-4	0
74	Eid	1	0	0	1	-4	0
75	Skedsmo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
76	Byåsen	1	0	0	1	-5	0
77	Djerv	1	0	0	1	-5	0
78	Orkla	1	0	0	1	-5	0
79	Frøya	1	0	0	1	-5	0
80	Spjelkavik	1	0	0	1	-5	0
81	Nybergsund	1	0	0	1	-5	0
82	Forus og Gausel	1	0	0	1	-5	0
83	Urædd	1	0	0	1	-6	0
84	Randesund	1	0	0	1	-8	0
85	Hammerfest IF Stein	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ham-Kam	2	2	0	0	+13	6
2	Brann	2	2	0	0	+12	6
3	Molde	2	2	0	0	+10	6
4	Odd	2	2	0	0	+9	6
5	Aalesund	2	2	0	0	+9	6
6	Viking	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Mjondalen	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Ranheim	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Start	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Sarpsborg 08	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Raufoss	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	KFUM Oslo	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Bodo/Glimt	2	2	0	0	+4	6
14	Jerv	2	2	0	0	+4	6
15	Kristiansund	2	2	0	0	+4	6
16	Fredrikstad	2	2	0	0	+4	6
17	Haugesund	2	2	0	0	+3	6
18	Sogndal	2	2	0	0	+3	6
19	Moss	2	2	0	0	+3	6
20	Valerenga	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Stromsgodset	2	2	0	0	+2	6
22	Asane	3	2	0	1	+0	6
23	Tromso	2	1	1	0	+8	4
24	Kongsvinger	2	1	1	0	+2	4
25	Arendal	1	1	0	0	+8	3
26	Levanger	1	1	0	0	+5	3
27	Sandnes ULF	2	1	0	1	+4	3
28	hodd	2	1	0	1	+4	3
29	Gjøvik-Lyn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
30	Ørn Horten	1	1	0	0	+4	3
31	Lillestrom	2	1	0	1	+3	3
32	Grorud	1	1	0	0	+3	3
33	Stabaek	2	1	0	1	+2	3
34	Skjervøy	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Sotra	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Notodden	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Bærum	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Stjørdals-Blink	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Fana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Tromsdalen Uil	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Alta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Brattvåg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Vidar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Kvik Halden	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Lyn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Byåsen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Bryne	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Rosenborg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Skeid	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Ull/Kisa	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Strommen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Sandefjord	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Kjelsås	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Træff	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Lørenskog	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Os	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Harstad	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Egersund	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Sandviken	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Fram	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Kolstad	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Ullern	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Floro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
64	Innstranden	1	0	0	1	-5	0
65	Bossekop	1	0	0	1	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.