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Championship

Referee: Josh Smith

Millwall

S S T U U

1–0

Full-time

Watford

T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,70 xG 0,76

39% Possession 61%

9 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 16. · Watford 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	6	5	1	0	+7	+2.5	16
2	Stoke	6	4	0	2	+5	+0.2	12
3	Bristol City	6	3	2	1	+6	-0.0	11
4	Leicester	6	3	2	1	+3	-1.5	11
5	Preston	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.1	11
6	Coventry	6	2	4	0	+8	+6.9	10
7	West Brom	6	3	1	2	+1	+1.0	10
8	Birmingham	6	3	1	2	+0	+4.0	10
9	QPR	6	3	1	2	-2	-1.9	10
10	Swansea	6	2	2	2	+1	+0.0	8
11	Charlton	6	2	2	2	-1	+1.1	8
12	Portsmouth	6	2	2	2	-1	+1.0	8
13	Hull	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.8	8
14	Norwich	6	2	1	3	+0	-3.5	7
15	Wrexham	6	2	1	3	-1	-5.7	7
16	Millwall	5	2	1	2	-3	+2.3	7
17	Ipswich	5	1	3	1	+4	+4.9	6
18	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.0	6
19	Southampton	6	1	3	2	-2	+2.9	6
20	Oxford	6	1	2	3	-1	-0.9	5
21	Watford	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.1	5
22	Derby	6	1	2	3	-4	-5.6	5
23	Sheffield Weds	6	1	1	4	-7	-3.2	4
24	Sheffield United	6	0	0	6	-12	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+3	+1.0	9
2	QPR	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.9	7
3	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
4	Preston	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.2	7
5	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.1	7
6	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
7	Hull	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.6	6
8	Coventry	3	1	2	0	+6	+5.2	5
9	Ipswich	3	1	2	0	+5	+4.2	5
10	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.4	5
11	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.1	4
12	Watford	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.4	4
13	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.6	4
14	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
15	Charlton	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.3	4
16	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-2	+1.0	3
17	Oxford	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.7	2
18	Wrexham	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.1	1
19	Derby	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.7	1
20	Norwich	3	0	0	3	-3	-0.3	0
21	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
22	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-5	+0.7	0
23	Millwall	2	0	0	2	-5	+0.8	0
24	Sheffield Weds	3	0	0	3	-8	-2.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+6	-0.1	7
2	Middlesbrough	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
3	Norwich	3	2	1	0	+3	-3.1	7
4	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.4	7
5	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
6	Blackburn	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.7	6
7	Wrexham	3	2	0	1	+2	-4.5	6
8	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.0	6
9	Coventry	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.7	5
10	Portsmouth	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.0	5
11	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.2	4
12	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	-4.0	4
13	Preston	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.1	4
14	Derby	3	1	1	1	-1	-3.0	4
15	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.2	4
16	Oxford	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.6	3
17	Swansea	3	1	0	2	+0	-0.4	3
18	Birmingham	3	1	0	2	-2	+1.9	3
19	QPR	3	1	0	2	-5	-2.8	3
20	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.7	2
21	Hull	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.3	2
22	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
23	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
24	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.