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LaLiga2

Ceuta

T T T T U

14:00 Saturday 26. September

Sociedad B

S U U S T

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The model's reading of the match in plain language: expected goals, favourite probability and what the form says.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ceuta Sociedad B

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

2,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-2,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — LaLiga2 · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

2,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-2,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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🔒 Where the model differs from the market Pro

The markets where our estimate differs most from the odds — the core of Pro.

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The table now Ceuta 22. · Sociedad B 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Castellon	6	5	1	0	+10	+0.4	16
2	Eibar	6	5	0	1	+8	+1.4	15
3	Mallorca	6	4	1	1	+6	+2.5	13
4	Almeria	6	4	0	2	+6	-1.3	12
5	Burgos	6	3	2	1	+3	-0.8	11
6	Sabadell	6	3	2	1	+2	+3.5	11
7	Leganes	6	3	2	1	+1	-2.0	11
8	Girona	6	3	1	2	+4	+0.9	10
9	Sp Gijon	6	3	1	2	+1	-1.0	10
10	Las Palmas	6	3	1	2	+0	-1.8	10
11	Tenerife	6	3	1	2	-1	-0.8	10
12	Sociedad B	6	2	2	2	+1	-2.0	8
13	Oviedo	6	2	2	2	+1	+3.1	8
14	Granada	6	2	2	2	+0	+0.1	8
15	Celta B	6	2	1	3	-3	-2.2	7
16	Cordoba	6	2	0	4	-4	+1.0	6
17	Eldense	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.9	5
18	Valladolid	6	1	2	3	-5	-1.6	5
19	Cadiz	6	0	3	3	-3	+2.4	3
20	Andorra	6	1	0	5	-4	+4.6	3
21	Albacete	6	0	1	5	-6	+0.4	1
22	Ceuta	6	0	1	5	-13	-5.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mallorca	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.5	9
2	Almeria	3	3	0	0	+6	–	9
3	Sabadell	3	3	0	0	+4	+1.1	9
4	Castellon	3	2	1	0	+7	-1.2	7
5	Burgos	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.7	7
6	Eibar	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.0	6
7	Leganes	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.6	6
8	Tenerife	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.2	6
9	Girona	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.4	4
10	Granada	2	1	1	0	+2	–	4
11	Las Palmas	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.4	4
12	Sp Gijon	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.0	4
13	Andorra	4	1	0	3	-1	+3.4	3
14	Valladolid	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
15	Celta B	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.2	3
16	Cordoba	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.3	3
17	Eldense	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.3	2
18	Oviedo	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.7	2
19	Cadiz	4	0	2	2	-2	+1.1	2
20	Sociedad B	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.6	1
21	Ceuta	3	0	1	2	-4	–	1
22	Albacete	3	0	0	3	-3	+0.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Eibar	3	3	0	0	+6	-0.7	9
2	Castellon	3	3	0	0	+3	+1.6	9
3	Sociedad B	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.4	7
4	Sp Gijon	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
5	Oviedo	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.4	6
6	Girona	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.6	6
7	Las Palmas	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.4	6
8	Leganes	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.6	5
9	Celta B	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.0	4
10	Burgos	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.2	4
11	Mallorca	3	1	1	1	-1	–	4
12	Granada	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.1	4
13	Tenerife	3	1	1	1	-3	-1.0	4
14	Almeria	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.3	3
15	Cordoba	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.7	3
16	Eldense	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.6	3
17	Sabadell	3	0	2	1	-2	+2.4	2
18	Valladolid	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.6	2
19	Cadiz	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.3	1
20	Albacete	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.4	1
21	Andorra	2	0	0	2	-3	+1.2	0
22	Ceuta	3	0	0	3	-9	-5.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

10. Apr -26 Ceuta – Sociedad B 0–0 21. Dec -25 Sociedad B – Ceuta 1–3

Odds comparison

Bookmaker odds fetched 1 day ago — the market may have moved since.

1X2

2,30

🔒

3,48

🔒

3,02

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5

1,25

🔒

U1,5

3,90

🔒

O2,5

1,80

🔒

U2,5

2,05

🔒

O3,5

2,97

🔒

U3,5

1,39

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

1,62

🔒

BLS nei

2,20

🔒

Why do we recommend this?

Over 2.5 goals in the match (Tips of the week — medium risk) — The model expects around 2,9 goals in the match (1,3 from Ceuta, 1,6 from Sociedad B). In Ceuta's recent matches there have been an average of 2,6 goals, in Sociedad B's 2,8. The market prices this at about 56 % — our model calculates 60 %, so the odds of 1,80 pay better than the risk suggests in our assessment.

Over 3.5 goals in the match (Tips of the week — high risk) — The model expects around 2,9 goals in the match (1,3 from Ceuta, 1,6 from Sociedad B). In Ceuta's recent matches there have been an average of 2,6 goals, in Sociedad B's 2,8. The market prices this at about 34 % — our model calculates 37 %, so the odds of 2,97 pay better than the risk suggests in our assessment.