Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Alcorcon
Numancia
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cadiz
|
22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | +12 | 44 |
| 2 |
Almeria
|
22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | +17 | 39 |
| 3 |
Zaragoza
|
23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | +10 | 39 |
| 4 |
Huesca
|
22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | +7 | 36 |
| 5 |
Fuenlabrada
|
23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | +5 | 36 |
| 6 |
Las Palmas
|
23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 33 |
| 7 |
Numancia
|
22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | +4 | 32 |
| 8 |
Elche
|
23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | +3 | 32 |
| 9 |
Mirandes
|
22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | -1 | 32 |
| 10 |
Ponferradina
|
23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 31 |
| 11 |
Girona
|
22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | +0 | 31 |
| 12 |
Vallecano
|
21 | 6 | 10 | 5 | +4 | 28 |
| 13 |
Alcorcon
|
22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | -1 | 28 |
| 14 |
Sp Gijon
|
23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 28 |
| 15 |
Albacete
|
22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -9 | 28 |
| 16 |
Malaga
|
23 | 5 | 11 | 7 | -1 | 26 |
| 17 |
Oviedo
|
22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -6 | 23 |
| 18 |
Tenerife
|
22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -4 | 22 |
| 19 | Extremadura UD | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -9 | 22 |
| 20 |
Lugo
|
22 | 4 | 10 | 8 | -12 | 22 |
| 21 |
Santander
|
22 | 2 | 13 | 7 | -5 | 19 |
| 22 |
La Coruna
|
22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -17 | 18 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
Fuenlabrada
Tenerife
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
Oviedo
Alcorcon
Huesca
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.