Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Ponferradina
Girona
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cadiz
|
15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | +12 | 35 |
| 2 |
Fuenlabrada
|
16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | +6 | 28 |
| 3 |
Almeria
|
16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | +8 | 26 |
| 4 |
Huesca
|
16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | +6 | 26 |
| 5 |
Numancia
|
16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 6 |
Albacete
|
16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 25 |
| 7 |
Zaragoza
|
16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | +3 | 23 |
| 8 |
Elche
|
16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | +2 | 23 |
| 9 |
Girona
|
15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | +2 | 23 |
| 10 |
Ponferradina
|
15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | +5 | 22 |
| 11 |
Vallecano
|
16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | +3 | 21 |
| 12 |
Alcorcon
|
15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 21 |
| 13 |
Las Palmas
|
15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 19 |
| 14 |
Lugo
|
15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -4 | 19 |
| 15 |
Mirandes
|
15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 |
Sp Gijon
|
15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | +0 | 17 |
| 17 | Extremadura UD | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 |
Malaga
|
15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 19 |
Tenerife
|
15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -3 | 14 |
| 20 |
Oviedo
|
15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 14 |
| 21 |
Santander
|
15 | 1 | 9 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 22 |
La Coruna
|
16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -15 | 10 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Santander
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
Malaga
Vallecano
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
Numancia
Ponferradina
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.