Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Venezia
Perugia
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benevento
|
37 | 25 | 8 | 4 | +38 | 83 |
| 2 |
Crotone
|
37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | +25 | 68 |
| 3 |
Spezia
|
37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | +13 | 58 |
| 4 | Pordenone | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | +2 | 57 |
| 5 |
Cittadella
|
37 | 16 | 7 | 14 | -1 | 55 |
| 6 |
Chievo
|
37 | 13 | 14 | 10 | +9 | 53 |
| 7 |
Pisa
|
37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | +4 | 53 |
| 8 |
Frosinone
|
37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | +3 | 53 |
| 9 |
Salernitana
|
37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | +4 | 52 |
| 10 |
Empoli
|
37 | 13 | 12 | 12 | -3 | 51 |
| 11 |
Cremonese
|
37 | 12 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 48 |
| 12 |
Virtus Entella
|
37 | 12 | 12 | 13 | -3 | 48 |
| 13 |
Venezia
|
37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | -5 | 47 |
| 14 |
Ascoli
|
37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | -6 | 46 |
| 15 |
Pescara
|
37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | -6 | 45 |
| 16 |
Perugia
|
37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | -9 | 45 |
| 17 |
Cosenza
|
37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | -1 | 43 |
| 18 | Trapani | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | -14 | 43 |
| 19 |
Juve Stabia
|
37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | -14 | 41 |
| 20 | Livorno | 37 | 5 | 6 | 26 | -35 | 21 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Cittadella
Venezia
Venezia
Juve Stabia
Spezia
Venezia
Venezia
Pescara
Benevento
Venezia
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.