Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Cittadella
Venezia
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benevento
|
36 | 25 | 8 | 3 | +39 | 83 |
| 2 |
Crotone
|
36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | +24 | 65 |
| 3 |
Spezia
|
36 | 16 | 9 | 11 | +13 | 57 |
| 4 | Pordenone | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | +2 | 56 |
| 5 |
Frosinone
|
36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | +4 | 53 |
| 6 |
Cittadella
|
36 | 15 | 7 | 14 | -2 | 52 |
| 7 |
Salernitana
|
36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | +4 | 51 |
| 8 |
Empoli
|
36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 51 |
| 9 |
Chievo
|
36 | 12 | 14 | 10 | +8 | 50 |
| 10 |
Pisa
|
36 | 13 | 11 | 12 | +3 | 50 |
| 11 |
Virtus Entella
|
36 | 12 | 11 | 13 | -3 | 47 |
| 12 |
Venezia
|
36 | 11 | 14 | 11 | -4 | 47 |
| 13 |
Ascoli
|
36 | 13 | 7 | 16 | -5 | 46 |
| 14 |
Cremonese
|
36 | 11 | 12 | 13 | -2 | 45 |
| 15 |
Perugia
|
36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 45 |
| 16 |
Pescara
|
36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 42 |
| 17 |
Juve Stabia
|
36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | -13 | 41 |
| 18 |
Cosenza
|
36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | -5 | 40 |
| 19 | Trapani | 36 | 9 | 13 | 14 | -15 | 40 |
| 20 | Livorno | 36 | 5 | 6 | 25 | -34 | 21 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Chievo
Cittadella
Cittadella
Ascoli
Salernitana
Cittadella
Cittadella
Crotone
Pisa
Cittadella
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.