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2. Bundesliga

Ingolstadt

U T T T T

3–2

Full-time

Erzgebirge Aue

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ingolstadt Erzgebirge Aue

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

0,3

1,2

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,2

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 13%

11%

15%

Points per game

0,6

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

63%

58%

Both score Ø 49%

44%

54%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

0,8

0,9

Conceded

1,9

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-1,0

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

10 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 2

8 Corners 2

15 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Ingolstadt 18. · Erzgebirge Aue 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	27	15	6	6	+16	51
2	Werder Bremen	27	15	6	6	+15	51
3	Darmstadt	27	14	6	7	+19	48
4	Schalke 04	27	14	5	8	+21	47
5	Nurnberg	27	13	7	7	+6	46
6	Hamburg	26	10	12	4	+19	42
7	Heidenheim	27	12	6	9	-1	42
8	Paderborn	27	9	10	8	+8	37
9	Karlsruhe	27	9	10	8	+6	37
10	Regensburg	27	10	6	11	+5	36
11	Hansa Rostock	27	9	7	11	-8	34
12	Holstein Kiel	27	9	7	11	-9	34
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	27	8	8	11	-1	32
14	Hannover	27	8	7	12	-15	31
15	Sandhausen	27	7	9	11	-14	30
16	Dresden	27	7	7	13	-10	28
17	Erzgebirge Aue	26	4	7	15	-27	19
18	Ingolstadt	27	3	6	18	-30	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	13	10	2	1	+19	32
2	Heidenheim	13	8	4	1	+9	28
3	Schalke 04	14	8	2	4	+12	26
4	Werder Bremen	13	7	4	2	+11	25
5	Hamburg	13	6	6	1	+12	24
6	Darmstadt	13	7	3	3	+11	24
7	Nurnberg	14	7	3	4	+4	24
8	Regensburg	14	6	3	5	+6	21
9	Karlsruhe	14	5	6	3	+6	21
10	Holstein Kiel	14	6	2	6	-4	20
11	Dresden	13	5	3	5	+2	18
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	4	5	5	+3	17
13	Hannover	13	4	4	5	-6	16
14	Paderborn	14	2	6	6	-3	12
15	Hansa Rostock	13	3	3	7	-8	12
16	Erzgebirge Aue	14	3	2	9	-15	11
17	Sandhausen	13	2	4	7	-12	10
18	Ingolstadt	13	1	4	8	-13	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Werder Bremen	14	8	2	4	+4	26
2	Paderborn	13	7	4	2	+11	25
3	Darmstadt	14	7	3	4	+8	24
4	Nurnberg	13	6	4	3	+2	22
5	Hansa Rostock	14	6	4	4	+0	22
6	Schalke 04	13	6	3	4	+9	21
7	Sandhausen	14	5	5	4	-2	20
8	St Pauli	14	5	4	5	-3	19
9	Hamburg	13	4	6	3	+7	18
10	Karlsruhe	13	4	4	5	+0	16
11	Regensburg	13	4	3	6	-1	15
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	4	3	6	-4	15
13	Hannover	14	4	3	7	-9	15
14	Holstein Kiel	13	3	5	5	-5	14
15	Heidenheim	14	4	2	8	-10	14
16	Dresden	14	2	4	8	-12	10
17	Erzgebirge Aue	12	1	5	6	-12	8
18	Ingolstadt	14	2	2	10	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.