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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Barnsley

U U S S S

2–0

Full-time

Stoke

U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barnsley Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

This season — Championship · 28/31 matches

Win Ø 41%

46%

35%

Points per game

1,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

54%

35%

Both score Ø 44%

46%

42%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 8

5 Offside 5

12 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barnsley 10. · Stoke 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	32	20	7	5	+20	67
2	Watford	31	16	9	6	+19	57
3	Brentford	29	15	8	6	+21	53
4	Reading	32	15	6	11	+7	51
5	Bournemouth	30	13	10	7	+16	49
6	Swansea	26	14	7	5	+14	49
7	Cardiff	31	13	7	11	+13	46
8	Middlesbrough	32	13	7	12	+3	46
9	Stoke	31	11	12	8	+4	45
10	Barnsley	28	13	6	9	+3	45
11	Millwall	32	9	16	7	+3	43
12	Bristol City	32	13	3	16	-11	42
13	Blackburn	30	11	6	13	+9	39
14	QPR	29	10	9	10	-4	39
15	Nott'm Forest	32	10	9	13	-4	39
16	Preston	31	12	3	16	-8	39
17	Luton	31	10	8	13	-11	38
18	Derby	31	10	7	14	-8	37
19	Huddersfield	32	10	6	16	-9	36
20	Sheffield Weds	30	9	7	14	-11	34
21	Coventry	31	8	10	13	-13	34
22	Birmingham	32	7	10	15	-17	31
23	Rotherham	30	8	5	17	-8	29
24	Wycombe	31	5	8	18	-28	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	16	12	2	2	+20	38
2	Norwich	16	10	5	1	+13	35
3	Bournemouth	15	9	3	3	+12	30
4	Swansea	14	8	5	1	+11	29
5	Reading	16	9	0	7	+4	27
6	Huddersfield	16	8	2	6	+7	26
7	Middlesbrough	16	8	2	6	+2	26
8	Brentford	13	7	4	2	+11	25
9	Stoke	16	7	4	5	+3	25
10	Barnsley	13	7	3	3	+4	24
11	Coventry	16	6	6	4	+0	24
12	Sheffield Weds	15	6	5	4	+3	23
13	Bristol City	16	7	2	7	-2	23
14	Blackburn	14	6	4	4	+6	22
15	QPR	15	6	4	5	+0	22
16	Cardiff	16	6	3	7	+8	21
17	Nott'm Forest	16	5	6	5	+1	21
18	Luton	15	5	6	4	+0	21
19	Millwall	16	3	10	3	+2	19
20	Derby	16	5	4	7	-5	19
21	Rotherham	15	4	3	8	-1	15
22	Preston	15	4	2	9	-5	14
23	Wycombe	16	3	5	8	-9	14
24	Birmingham	16	2	3	11	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	16	10	2	4	+7	32
2	Brentford	16	8	4	4	+10	28
3	Cardiff	15	7	4	4	+5	25
4	Preston	16	8	1	7	-3	25
5	Reading	16	6	6	4	+3	24
6	Millwall	16	6	6	4	+1	24
7	Birmingham	16	5	7	4	+0	22
8	Barnsley	15	6	3	6	-1	21
9	Swansea	12	6	2	4	+3	20
10	Middlesbrough	16	5	5	6	+1	20
11	Stoke	15	4	8	3	+1	20
12	Bournemouth	15	4	7	4	+4	19
13	Watford	15	4	7	4	-1	19
14	Bristol City	16	6	1	9	-9	19
15	Derby	15	5	3	7	-3	18
16	Nott'm Forest	16	5	3	8	-5	18
17	Blackburn	16	5	2	9	+3	17
18	QPR	14	4	5	5	-4	17
19	Luton	16	5	2	9	-11	17
20	Rotherham	15	4	2	9	-7	14
21	Sheffield Weds	15	3	2	10	-14	11
22	Coventry	15	2	4	9	-13	10
23	Huddersfield	16	2	4	10	-16	10
24	Wycombe	15	2	3	10	-19	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.