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Ligue 1

Referee: Sébastien Desiage

Lorient

S U T S T

3–1

Full-time

Guingamp

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Guingamp

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,3

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

2,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 32%

21%

42%

Points per game

0,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

68%

37%

Both score Ø 53%

53%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%

16 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 0

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

3 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lorient 20. · Guingamp 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	19	13	5	1	+21	44
2	Monaco	19	13	3	3	+36	42
3	Paris SG	20	13	3	4	+24	42
4	Lyon	18	11	1	6	+15	34
5	Guingamp	19	8	6	5	+6	30
6	Marseille	19	8	6	5	+3	30
7	Rennes	20	8	4	8	-4	28
8	St Etienne	20	6	9	5	+2	27
9	Toulouse	19	7	5	7	+1	26
10	Bordeaux	19	6	7	6	-6	25
11	Montpellier	19	5	7	7	-3	22
12	Lille	20	6	4	10	-7	22
13	Nancy	19	5	6	8	-8	21
14	Bastia	19	5	5	9	-6	20
15	Dijon	19	4	7	8	-3	19
16	Angers	19	5	4	10	-9	19
17	Nantes	18	5	4	9	-14	19
18	Metz	18	5	4	9	-18	19
19	Caen	18	5	3	10	-12	18
20	Lorient	19	4	3	12	-18	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	10	8	2	0	+16	26
2	Monaco	10	8	1	1	+24	25
3	Paris SG	10	7	3	0	+21	24
4	Rennes	11	7	2	2	+8	23
5	Marseille	9	6	3	0	+10	21
6	Guingamp	9	6	2	1	+6	20
7	Toulouse	9	6	1	2	+8	19
8	Montpellier	9	5	3	1	+10	18
9	Lyon	9	6	0	3	+7	18
10	St Etienne	10	4	5	1	+5	17
11	Lille	11	5	2	4	+0	17
12	Caen	9	5	2	2	+0	17
13	Dijon	10	4	4	2	+6	16
14	Bordeaux	10	4	3	3	-2	15
15	Nancy	9	4	1	4	+2	13
16	Bastia	10	3	4	3	+1	13
17	Lorient	9	4	1	4	-5	13
18	Angers	9	3	3	3	+0	12
19	Metz	8	2	3	3	-9	9
20	Nantes	9	2	3	4	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	9	5	3	1	+5	18
2	Paris SG	10	6	0	4	+3	18
3	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+12	17
4	Lyon	9	5	1	3	+8	16
5	Guingamp	10	2	4	4	+0	10
6	St Etienne	10	2	4	4	-3	10
7	Bordeaux	9	2	4	3	-4	10
8	Nantes	9	3	1	5	-5	10
9	Metz	10	3	1	6	-9	10
10	Marseille	10	2	3	5	-7	9
11	Nancy	10	1	5	4	-10	8
12	Bastia	9	2	1	6	-7	7
13	Toulouse	10	1	4	5	-7	7
14	Angers	10	2	1	7	-9	7
15	Lille	9	1	2	6	-7	5
16	Rennes	9	1	2	6	-12	5
17	Montpellier	10	0	4	6	-13	4
18	Dijon	9	0	3	6	-9	3
19	Lorient	10	0	2	8	-13	2
20	Caen	9	0	1	8	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.