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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Marseille

S T T S T

2–0

Full-time

Guingamp

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Guingamp

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 37%

39%

35%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

52%

39%

Both score Ø 53%

48%

57%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%

20 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 7. · Guingamp 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	24	17	4	3	+47	55
2	Paris SG	24	16	4	4	+29	52
3	Nice	24	15	7	2	+21	52
4	Lyon	23	13	1	9	+17	40
5	St Etienne	24	9	9	6	+7	36
6	Bordeaux	24	9	9	6	+1	36
7	Marseille	23	9	6	8	+1	33
8	Rennes	24	8	8	8	-4	32
9	Guingamp	23	8	7	8	+1	31
10	Toulouse	24	8	6	10	+0	30
11	Metz	23	8	5	10	-15	29
12	Nancy	23	7	6	10	-11	27
13	Lille	24	7	5	12	-8	26
14	Montpellier	24	6	8	10	-9	26
15	Nantes	23	7	5	11	-16	26
16	Caen	23	7	4	12	-15	25
17	Dijon	24	5	9	10	-5	24
18	Angers	24	6	6	12	-13	24
19	Bastia	23	5	7	11	-8	22
20	Lorient	24	6	4	14	-20	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	13	10	3	0	+19	33
2	Monaco	12	10	1	1	+31	31
3	Paris SG	12	8	4	0	+22	28
4	Lyon	12	8	0	4	+12	24
5	Marseille	11	7	3	1	+11	24
6	Rennes	12	7	3	2	+8	24
7	St Etienne	12	6	5	1	+8	23
8	Montpellier	12	6	4	2	+10	22
9	Toulouse	12	7	1	4	+8	22
10	Guingamp	11	6	3	2	+5	21
11	Caen	11	6	2	3	-3	20
12	Bordeaux	12	5	4	3	-1	19
13	Metz	11	5	3	3	-5	18
14	Dijon	12	4	5	3	+4	17
15	Angers	12	4	5	3	+1	17
16	Lille	12	5	2	5	-1	17
17	Lorient	12	5	2	5	-4	17
18	Nancy	11	5	1	5	+1	16
19	Bastia	12	3	6	3	+1	15
20	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-12	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	12	7	3	2	+16	24
2	Paris SG	12	8	0	4	+7	24
3	Nice	11	5	4	2	+2	19
4	Bordeaux	12	4	5	3	+2	17
5	Lyon	11	5	1	5	+5	16
6	Nantes	11	4	2	5	-4	14
7	St Etienne	12	3	4	5	-1	13
8	Metz	12	3	2	7	-10	11
9	Nancy	12	2	5	5	-12	11
10	Guingamp	12	2	4	6	-4	10
11	Lille	12	2	3	7	-7	9
12	Marseille	12	2	3	7	-10	9
13	Toulouse	12	1	5	6	-8	8
14	Rennes	12	1	5	6	-12	8
15	Dijon	12	1	4	7	-9	7
16	Bastia	11	2	1	8	-9	7
17	Angers	12	2	1	9	-14	7
18	Caen	12	1	2	9	-12	5
19	Lorient	12	1	2	9	-16	5
20	Montpellier	12	0	4	8	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.