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Championship
Referee: Keith Hill
Brentford
T U T S T
0–2
Full-time
Birmingham
S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Birmingham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,2
This season — Championship · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 32%
25%
38%
Points per game
1,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
75%
38%
Both score Ø 76%
88%
63%
Average goals
3,4
2,8
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
1,9
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%
13 Shots 17
3 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 6
0 Offside 5
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Brentford 19. · Birmingham 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Brighton 9 6 3 0 +6 21
2 Middlesbrough 9 6 2 1 +12 20
3 Reading 9 4 3 2 +7 15
4 Hull 9 4 3 2 +5 15
5 Cardiff 9 4 3 2 +3 15
6 Burnley 9 4 3 2 +2 15
7 Ipswich 9 4 3 2 +0 15
8 Derby 9 3 5 1 +3 14
9 Birmingham 8 3 3 2 +2 12
10 Nott'm Forest 9 3 3 3 +0 12
11 Sheffield Weds 9 3 3 3 -1 12
12 QPR 9 3 3 3 -3 12
13 Fulham 8 3 2 3 +4 11
14 Leeds 9 2 5 2 -2 11
15 Huddersfield 9 2 4 3 -1 10
16 Wolves 8 2 3 3 -2 9
17 Charlton 9 2 3 4 -3 9
18 Blackburn 9 1 5 3 +0 8
19 Brentford 8 2 2 4 -3 8
20 Rotherham 9 2 2 5 -6 8
21 Bolton 9 1 5 3 -6 8
22 Preston 9 1 4 4 -4 7
23 Milton Keynes Dons 9 2 1 6 -5 7
24 Bristol City 9 1 3 5 -8 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Brentford Birmingham
Half-time 0–0
67′
🔁 J. Maghoma
↦ D. Davis
Sergi Canós 🔁
↦ K. Kerschbaumer
69′
71′
M. Morrison 0–1
D. Cotterill
Alan McCormack 🟨
75′
Harlee Dean 🟨
78′
80′
🟨 Paul Caddis
A. Gogia 🔁
↦ R. Woods
88′
94′
C. Donaldson 0–2
S. Gleeson
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Brentford

27 D. Button G
6 H. Dean D
3 J. Bidwell D
22 J. O'Connell D
12 A. McCormack M
20 T. Diagouraga M
18 A. Judge M
17 K. Kerschbaumer M
15 R. Woods M
21 L. Vibe F
8 M. Djuricin F
Bench (7)
47 Sergi Canós
24 A. Gogia
16 J. Bonham
28 N. Yennaris
29 Y. Barbet
35 J. Udumaga
36 J. Clarke

Birmingham

29 T. Kuszczak G
4 P. Robinson D
3 J. Grounds D
31 P. Caddis D
28 M. Morrison D
11 D. Cotterill M
8 S. Gleeson M
6 M. Kieftenbeld M
26 D. Davis M
7 D. Gray M
9 C. Donaldson F
Bench (7)
19 J. Maghoma
1 A. Legzdins
17 V. Solomon-Otabor
18 R. Brown
20 Jon Toral
23 J. Spector
44 N. Brock-Madsen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Keith Hill · 12 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
0,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.