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Champions League
Referee: J Manzano
Monaco
U S T U S
2–3
Full-time
Paris SG
S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
0,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 38%
25%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
50%
75%
Both score Ø 63%
50%
75%
Average goals
2,8
4,0
Scored
1,0
2,6
Conceded
1,8
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,19 xG 3,09
20% Possession 80%
7 Shots 30
4 Shots on target 10
0 Blocked shots 10
7 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 8
2 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 4
2 Yellow cards 0
1 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

29. Nov -25 Monaco – Paris SG 1–0 7. Feb -25 Paris SG – Monaco 4–1 18. Dec -24 Monaco – Paris SG 2–4 1. Mar -24 Monaco – Paris SG 0–0 24. Nov -23 Paris SG – Monaco 5–2

Match report

Monaco Paris SG
1–0 F. Balogun ⚽
A. Golovin
1′
2–0 F. Balogun ⚽
M. Akliouche
18′
Wout Faes 🟨
21′
27′
🔁 D. Doue
↦ O. Dembele
Denis Zakaria 🟨
29′
29′
⚽ D. Doue 2–1
B. Barcola
41′
⚽ A. Hakimi 2–2
D. Doue
Half-time 2–2
Aleksandr Golovin ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
47′
Aleksandr Golovin 🟥
48′
K. Diatta 🔁
↦ M. Akliouche
58′
67′
⚽ D. Doue 2–3
W. Zaire-Emery
69′
🔁 Lee Kang-In
↦ K. Kvaratskhelia
A. Bamba 🔁
↦ Vanderson
70′
M. Coulibaly 🔁
↦ S. Adingra
70′
81′
🔁 G. Ramos
↦ B. Barcola
M. Biereth 🔁
↦ F. Balogun
83′
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Monaco

4-2-3-1
16 P. Kohn G
2 Vanderson D
4 J. Teze D
25 W. Faes D
12 Caio Henrique D
15 L. Camara M
6 D. Zakaria M
11 M. Akliouche M
10 A. Golovin M
24 S. Adingra M
9 F. Balogun F
Bench (9)
40 J. Stawiecki
50 Y. Lienard
14 M. Biereth
17 S. Idumbo
23 A. Bamba
27 K. Diatta
28 M. Coulibaly
41 I. Toure
44 S. Nibombe

Coach: Sebastien Pocognoli

Paris SG

4-3-3
39 M. Safonov G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
51 W. Pacho D
25 N. Mendes D
33 W. Zaire-Emery M
17 Vitinha M
87 J. Neves M
7 K. Kvaratskhelia F
10 O. Dembele F
29 B. Barcola F
Bench (10)
30 L. Chevalier
89 R. Marin
4 L. Beraldo
6 I. Zabarnyi
9 G. Ramos
14 D. Doue
19 Lee Kang-In
21 L. Hernandez
27 D. Fernandez
49 I. Mbaye

Coach: Enrique Luis

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Manzano · 18 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.