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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Ath Madrid
S S T S U
2–1
Full-time
Porto
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Porto
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,8
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,2
3,0
Scored
1,3
2,3
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%
10 Shots 17
3 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 7
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 6
2 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Ath Madrid Porto
Half-time 0–0
T. Lemar 🔁
↦ Y. Carrasco
46′
R. De Paul 🔁
↦ N. Molina
46′
53′
🟨 Pepê
Koke 🟨
56′
A. Griezmann 🔁
↦ Saúl
61′
62′
🔁 João Mário
↦ Pepê Aquino
68′
🟨 Mateus Uribe
Hermoso 🔁
↦ Álvaro Morata
68′
71′
🟨 Mehdi Taremi
Á. Correa 🔁
↦ João Félix
71′
77′
🔁 Bruno Costa
↦ Otávio
78′
🔁 Toni Martínez
↦ Evanilson
81′
🟨 Mehdi Taremi
81′
🟥 Mehdi Taremi
88′
🔁 Gabriel Veron
↦ Galeno
1–0 Hermoso ⚽
Á. Correa
91′
Mario Hermoso 🟨
95′
96′
⚽ M. Uribe 1–1
2–1 A. Griezmann 1 ⚽
A. Witsel
101′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

3-1-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
2 J. Giménez D
20 A. Witsel D
23 Reinildo D
6 Koke M
16 N. Molina M
14 Marcos Llorente M
17 Saúl M
21 Y. Carrasco M
19 Álvaro Morata F
7 João Félix F
Bench (10)
11 T. Lemar
5 R. De Paul
8 A. Griezmann
22 Hermoso
10 Á. Correa
1 I. Grbić
4 G. Kondogbia
36 Marco Moreno
31 Antonio Gomis
30 Sergio Díez

Coach: D. Simeone

Porto

4-4-2
99 Diogo Costa G
11 Pepê Aquino D
3 Pepe D
4 David Carmo D
12 Z. Sanusi D
25 Otávio M
8 M. Uribe M
46 S. Eustáquio M
13 Galeno M
30 Evanilson F
9 M. Taremi F
Bench (12)
23 João Mário
28 Bruno Costa
29 Toni Martínez
7 Gabriel Veron
17 Rodrigo Conceição
22 Wendell
19 D. Namaso
20 André Franco
2 Fábio Cardoso
5 Iván Marcano
70 Gonçalo Borges
14 Cláudio Ramos

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 120 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.