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Pro League
Referee: W Smet
Liège
S T S T T
1–2
Full-time
Lommel United
T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liège Lommel United
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,0
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
3,3
2,3
Scored
1,5
0,8
Conceded
1,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,7
This season — Pro League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
0,0
3,0
Conceded
3,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
-3,0
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

68% Possession 32%
17 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 6
6 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
11 Corners 4
5 Offside 0
13 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Club Brugge 25 20 1 4 +29 +15.4 61
2 St. Gilloise 25 17 8 0 +31 +22.9 59
3 St Truiden 25 15 3 7 +15 +15.3 48
4 Genk 24 10 8 6 +6 +10.4 38
5 Gent 24 11 5 8 +4 +0.9 38
6 Mechelen 25 10 8 7 +1 -9.6 38
7 Cercle Brugge 28 10 7 11 +2 +2.7 37
8 Antwerp 25 10 5 10 +5 +0.3 35
9 Waregem 28 10 4 14 -3 -4.5 34
10 Anderlecht 25 9 6 10 +0 +3.0 33
11 Westerlo 25 8 7 10 -5 -1.7 31
12 Standard 25 8 6 11 -12 -12.0 30
13 Charleroi 25 7 5 13 -6 -3.1 26
14 Oud-Heverlee Leuven 25 5 7 13 -17 -9.6 22
15 RAAL La Louviere 28 4 10 14 -19 -11.0 22
16 Dender 28 3 6 19 -31 -19.3 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Liège Lommel United
8′
Z. Vancsa 0–1
S. De Grand
18′
Z. Vancsa 0–2
R. Seuntjens
Jordan Bustin 🟨
25′
1–2 K. Hazard
B. Bruggeman
29′
Half-time 1–2
65′
🔁 R. van Duiven
↦ L. Lopez
Alexis Lefebvre 🟨
71′
72′
🔁 N. Rommens
↦ R. Seuntjens
78′
🟨 Lucas Schoofs
A. Arslan 🔁
↦ J. D'Ostilio
79′
79′
🔁 M. Salah
↦ Z. Vancsa
L. Pirotte 🔁
↦ A. Lefebvre
87′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Liège

4-2-3-1
1 A. Andre G
2 M. Wasinski D
5 P. Ngawa D
4 J. Bustin D
25 J. D'Ostilio D
28 R. Wilmots M
16 E. N'jo M
11 A. Lefebvre M
8 K. Ruiz Atil M
7 B. Bruggeman M
10 K. Hazard F
Bench (9)
12 J. Belin
24 A. De Sart
13 D. Mouchamps
6 K. Shkurti
15 A. Arslan
23 S. Reynaerts
27 V. Corneillie
9 E. Gedikli
26 L. Pirotte

Coach: Gaetan Englebert

Lommel United

4-4-2
23 M. Pieklak G
9 J. van Duiven D
13 J. A. Banguera Riascos D
5 D. Wouters D
79 S. De Grand D
93 Z. Vancsa M
6 J. Pelupessy M
18 L. Lopez M
10 T. Reyners M
15 L. Schoofs F
30 R. Seuntjens F
Bench (9)
1 N. Ivezic
8 N. Rommens
3 T. Eyoma
73 A. Reumers
11 R. van Duiven
14 J. Tolinsson
34 H. Oware
98 M. Salah
46 N. Corthouts

Coach: Lee Johnson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

W Smet · 86 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.