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Pro League

Referee: K Clerkx

Dender

T S T U U

2–1

Full-time

Charleroi

T U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dender Charleroi

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,7

Scored

1,5

Conceded

2,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Pro League · 24/23 matches

Win Ø 32%

29%

35%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

58%

35%

Both score Ø 53%

63%

43%

Average goals

3,0

2,1

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,77 xG 2,15

40% Possession 60%

7 Shots 27

4 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dender 8. · Charleroi 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Club Brugge	24	17	5	2	+35	+32.8	56
2	Genk	24	17	3	4	+21	+18.5	54
3	St. Gilloise	24	15	6	3	+28	+26.1	51
4	Anderlecht	24	12	6	6	+20	+6.3	42
5	Antwerp	23	10	9	4	+15	-2.3	39
6	Gent	24	9	8	7	+3	-8.3	35
7	Charleroi	23	8	8	7	+3	+2.4	32
8	Dender	24	7	9	8	-7	-11.0	30
9	Cercle Brugge	27	7	9	11	-17	-3.3	30
10	Standard	24	7	8	9	-13	-8.8	29
11	Westerlo	24	6	7	11	-3	+0.0	25
12	Mechelen	24	6	7	11	-5	+2.5	25
13	St Truiden	27	6	7	14	-22	-7.6	25
14	Kortrijk	27	7	3	17	-23	-15.0	24
15	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	24	3	13	8	-7	-6.5	22
16	Beerschot VA	27	2	8	17	-28	-25.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Genk	12	10	1	1	+18	+14.7	31
2	St. Gilloise	12	10	0	2	+19	+19.3	30
3	Club Brugge	12	9	2	1	+21	+20.0	29
4	Anderlecht	12	6	4	2	+13	+4.3	22
5	Charleroi	12	6	3	3	+7	+5.0	21
6	Antwerp	11	6	2	3	+14	+3.8	20
7	Gent	12	6	2	4	+6	-2.9	20
8	Cercle Brugge	13	5	5	3	-2	+3.7	20
9	Standard	12	5	4	3	+1	-1.9	19
10	St Truiden	14	4	6	4	-3	+0.8	18
11	Mechelen	12	4	5	3	+7	+6.2	17
12	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	12	3	8	1	+4	+2.2	17
13	Westerlo	12	4	4	4	+6	+10.7	16
14	Kortrijk	14	5	1	8	-6	-2.1	16
15	Dender	12	3	5	4	+0	-2.2	14
16	Beerschot VA	13	2	6	5	-6	-10.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Club Brugge	12	8	3	1	+14	+12.8	27
2	Genk	12	7	2	3	+3	+3.8	23
3	St. Gilloise	12	5	6	1	+9	+6.8	21
4	Anderlecht	12	6	2	4	+7	+2.0	20
5	Antwerp	12	4	7	1	+1	-6.1	19
6	Dender	12	4	4	4	-7	-8.8	16
7	Gent	12	3	6	3	-3	-5.4	15
8	Charleroi	11	2	5	4	-4	-2.6	11
9	Standard	12	2	4	6	-14	-6.9	10
10	Cercle Brugge	14	2	4	8	-15	-7.0	10
11	Westerlo	12	2	3	7	-9	-10.6	9
12	Mechelen	12	2	2	8	-12	-3.7	8
13	Kortrijk	13	2	2	9	-17	-12.9	8
14	St Truiden	13	2	1	10	-19	-8.4	7
15	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	12	0	5	7	-11	-8.8	5
16	Beerschot VA	14	0	2	12	-22	-15.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.