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Primeira Liga
Referee: Fábio Veríssimo
Portimonense
T U T T T
1–0
Full-time
Farense
T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portimonense Farense
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,3
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
2,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,7
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 32%
25%
38%
Points per game
0,9
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
56%
56%
Both score Ø 57%
69%
44%
Average goals
3,3
2,8
Scored
1,1
1,4
Conceded
2,3
1,4
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,31 xG 0,67
46% Possession 54%
12 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 3
7 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 4
2 Offside 0
19 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Portimonense 16. · Farense 7.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 16 13 1 2 +20 +17.1 40
2 Benfica 16 12 3 1 +21 +18.9 39
3 Porto 16 11 2 3 +11 +10.4 35
4 Sp Braga 16 10 3 3 +17 +11.8 33
5 Guimaraes 16 9 3 4 +8 +1.8 30
6 Moreirense 16 7 5 4 +4 +0.0 26
7 Farense 16 6 3 7 +1 -6.0 21
8 Casa Pia 16 5 4 7 -3 -3.9 19
9 Famalicao 16 4 7 5 -5 -5.3 19
10 Estoril 16 5 2 9 +1 -8.9 17
11 Estrela 16 4 5 7 -6 -4.7 17
12 Boavista 16 4 5 7 -8 -7.6 17
13 Arouca 16 4 4 8 -1 -0.5 16
14 Gil Vicente 16 4 3 9 -4 -6.5 15
15 Rio Ave 16 3 6 7 -6 +4.5 15
16 Portimonense 16 4 3 9 -19 -9.8 15
17 Vizela 16 2 7 7 -8 -3.8 13
18 Chaves 16 3 2 11 -23 -7.5 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Portimonense Farense
Pedrão 🟨
18′
39′
🟨 Facundo Cáseres
Half-time 0–0
56′
🔁 Rui Costa
↦ Bruno Duarte
1–0 Carlinhos
58′
64′
🔁 Vítor Gonçalves
↦ Fabrício Isidoro
64′
🔁 Elves Baldé
↦ M. Belloumi
Gonçalo Costa 🔁
↦ Alemão
67′
Carlinhos 🟨
69′
73′
🟨 Fran Delgado
79′
🔁 Rafael Barbosa
↦ F. Cáseres
79′
🔁 Cristian Ponde
↦ Fran Delgado
Luan 🔁
↦ Carlinhos
81′
Estrela 🔁
↦ S. Jasper
81′
Zinho 🔁
↦ Hélio Varela
89′
95′
🟨 Zach Muscat
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Portimonense

4-2-3-1
32 Kosuke Nakamura G
33 Igor Formiga D
43 Alemão D
44 Pedrão D
22 Filipe Relvas D
13 Dener M
25 Lucas Ventura M
7 S. Jasper M
11 Carlinhos M
77 Hélio Varela M
19 R. Carrillo F
Bench (9)
18 Gonçalo Costa
28 Luan
20 Estrela
99 Zinho
85 Midana Cassamá
6 Ricardo Sousa
27 Guga
12 Vinícius
8 Maurício

Coach: Paulo Sérgio

Farense

4-2-3-1
33 Ricardo Velho G
2 Fran Delgado D
37 Gonçalo Silva D
6 Z. Muscat D
31 Talocha D
5 F. Cáseres M
14 Fabrício Isidoro M
62 M. Belloumi M
27 Mattheus Oliveira M
77 Marco Matias M
9 Bruno Duarte F
Bench (9)
19 Rui Costa
80 Vítor Gonçalves
7 Elves Baldé
8 Rafael Barbosa
20 Cristian Ponde
1 Luiz Felipe
4 Artur Jorge
12 Talys
3 Igor Rossi

Coach: José Mota

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,62
U
3,36
B
2,66
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,98
U2,5 ✓
1,83
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Fábio Veríssimo · 127 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.