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Serie A

Referee: Marco Guida

Como

T S S S U

1–3

Full-time

Milan

U S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Como Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 53%

47%

58%

Points per game

1,8

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

32%

47%

Both score Ø 45%

37%

53%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,87 xG 1,28

68% Possession 32%

18 Shots 7

8 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Como 6. · Milan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	20	15	1	4	+26	+20.7	46
2	Milan	19	11	7	1	+15	+9.5	40
3	Napoli	20	12	4	4	+13	+9.1	40
4	Juventus	20	11	6	3	+16	+17.5	39
5	Roma	20	13	0	7	+12	+2.5	39
6	Como	19	9	7	3	+14	+6.7	34
7	Atalanta	20	8	7	5	+6	+9.7	31
8	Bologna	20	8	6	6	+7	+0.2	30
9	Lazio	20	7	7	6	+5	-4.3	28
10	Udinese	20	7	5	8	-10	-4.3	26
11	Sassuolo	20	6	5	9	-4	-9.9	23
12	Torino	20	6	5	9	-11	-4.6	23
13	Cremonese	20	5	7	8	-8	-12.7	22
14	Parma	20	5	7	8	-8	-7.5	22
15	Genoa	20	4	7	9	-7	-0.6	19
16	Cagliari	20	4	7	9	-9	-11.0	19
17	Lecce	20	4	5	11	-15	-11.6	17
18	Fiorentina	20	2	8	10	-10	+1.7	14
19	Pisa	20	1	10	9	-15	-7.1	13
20	Verona	20	2	7	11	-17	-4.0	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	11	8	1	2	+19	+14.0	25
2	Juventus	10	6	4	0	+12	+12.3	22
3	Napoli	9	6	3	0	+8	+2.2	21
4	Roma	10	7	0	3	+8	+4.4	21
5	Milan	10	6	3	1	+7	+7.1	21
6	Como	9	5	4	0	+9	+4.7	19
7	Atalanta	11	5	4	2	+5	+9.6	19
8	Lazio	10	4	4	2	+6	+1.8	16
9	Bologna	9	4	2	3	+3	+4.1	14
10	Udinese	10	3	4	3	-4	+1.9	13
11	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-3	-5.8	11
12	Torino	10	3	2	5	-7	-4.4	11
13	Cremonese	9	2	4	3	-2	-1.6	10
14	Genoa	11	2	4	5	-4	+0.6	10
15	Fiorentina	10	2	3	5	-1	+4.5	9
16	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-3	-4.6	9
17	Parma	10	2	3	5	-6	-5.2	9
18	Lecce	11	2	3	6	-8	-2.5	9
19	Verona	10	1	3	6	-6	-0.4	6
20	Pisa	10	1	3	6	-9	-2.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	0	2	+7	+6.7	21
2	Milan	9	5	4	0	+8	+2.4	19
3	Napoli	11	6	1	4	+5	+6.8	19
4	Roma	10	6	0	4	+4	-2.0	18
5	Juventus	10	5	2	3	+4	+5.2	17
6	Bologna	11	4	4	3	+4	-3.8	16
7	Como	10	4	3	3	+5	+1.9	15
8	Parma	10	3	4	3	-2	-2.3	13
9	Udinese	10	4	1	5	-6	-6.2	13
10	Atalanta	9	3	3	3	+1	+0.2	12
11	Sassuolo	10	3	3	4	-1	-4.2	12
12	Lazio	10	3	3	4	-1	-6.2	12
13	Torino	10	3	3	4	-4	-0.2	12
14	Cremonese	11	3	3	5	-6	-11.1	12
15	Cagliari	11	2	4	5	-6	-6.5	10
16	Genoa	9	2	3	4	-3	-1.1	9
17	Lecce	9	2	2	5	-7	-9.1	8
18	Pisa	10	0	7	3	-6	-4.6	7
19	Verona	10	1	4	5	-11	-3.6	7
20	Fiorentina	10	0	5	5	-9	-2.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.