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Serie A

Referee: Michael Fabbri

Milan

S S T S U

3–0

Full-time

Verona

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Verona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 37%

60%

13%

Points per game

2,1

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,6

0,9

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,43 xG 0,39

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Verona 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	11	0	4	+20	+14.0	33
2	Milan	15	9	5	1	+11	+6.0	32
3	Juventus	17	9	5	3	+8	+10.1	32
4	Napoli	15	10	1	4	+9	+5.6	31
5	Roma	16	10	0	6	+7	+0.3	30
6	Como	16	7	6	3	+10	+5.2	27
7	Bologna	15	7	4	4	+10	+3.4	25
8	Lazio	17	6	6	5	+6	-4.3	24
9	Atalanta	16	5	7	4	+2	+6.9	22
10	Udinese	17	6	4	7	-10	-4.5	22
11	Sassuolo	16	6	3	7	+1	-6.2	21
12	Cremonese	16	5	6	5	+0	-6.8	21
13	Torino	17	5	5	7	-11	-3.2	20
14	Cagliari	17	4	6	7	-5	-10.9	18
15	Parma	16	4	5	7	-7	-4.6	17
16	Lecce	16	4	4	8	-11	-6.8	16
17	Genoa	16	3	5	8	-8	+1.5	14
18	Verona	15	2	6	7	-9	-1.1	12
19	Pisa	17	1	8	8	-12	-6.2	11
20	Fiorentina	17	1	6	10	-11	+1.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+8	+1.6	19
2	Inter	8	6	0	2	+16	+9.8	18
3	Juventus	8	5	3	0	+7	+7.3	18
4	Milan	8	5	2	1	+4	+3.9	17
5	Lazio	8	4	3	1	+8	+2.2	15
6	Como	7	4	3	0	+8	+3.4	15
7	Roma	8	5	0	3	+4	+2.0	15
8	Bologna	7	4	1	2	+5	+5.1	13
9	Atalanta	8	3	4	1	+3	+7.0	13
10	Udinese	9	3	3	3	-4	+1.1	12
11	Torino	9	3	2	4	-6	-3.3	11
12	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	+0	-3.1	10
13	Cremonese	7	2	3	2	+0	+0.4	9
14	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-2	-4.2	9
15	Parma	9	2	3	4	-4	-2.9	9
16	Lecce	9	2	3	4	-5	-1.5	9
17	Verona	7	1	3	3	-1	+1.0	6
18	Pisa	9	1	3	5	-6	-2.3	6
19	Genoa	9	1	3	5	-7	+0.8	6
20	Fiorentina	8	1	2	5	-2	+3.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	7	4	3	0	+7	+2.1	15
2	Inter	7	5	0	2	+4	+4.1	15
3	Roma	8	5	0	3	+3	-1.6	15
4	Juventus	9	4	2	3	+1	+2.8	14
5	Bologna	8	3	3	2	+5	-1.6	12
6	Como	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
7	Napoli	8	4	0	4	+1	+4.0	12
8	Cremonese	9	3	3	3	+0	-7.3	12
9	Sassuolo	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.1	11
10	Udinese	8	3	1	4	-6	-5.6	10
11	Atalanta	8	2	3	3	-1	-0.1	9
12	Lazio	9	2	3	4	-2	-6.5	9
13	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-3	-6.6	9
14	Torino	8	2	3	3	-5	+0.2	9
15	Genoa	7	2	2	3	-1	+0.7	8
16	Parma	7	2	2	3	-3	-1.7	8
17	Lecce	7	2	1	4	-6	-5.3	7
18	Verona	8	1	3	4	-8	-2.1	6
19	Pisa	8	0	5	3	-6	-3.9	5
20	Fiorentina	9	0	4	5	-9	-1.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.