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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Juventus

S S S T U

2–1

Full-time

Napoli

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Juventus Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,7

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,3

This season — Serie A · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 61%

57%

64%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

54%

61%

Both score Ø 54%

57%

50%

Average goals

2,9

3,4

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

12 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Juventus 4. · Napoli 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	28	21	5	2	+40	68
2	Milan	29	18	6	5	+20	60
3	Atalanta	29	17	7	5	+32	58
4	Juventus	28	16	8	4	+31	56
5	Napoli	28	18	2	8	+30	56
6	Lazio	28	16	4	8	+7	52
7	Roma	29	15	6	8	+9	51
8	Verona	29	11	8	10	+4	41
9	Sassuolo	28	10	10	8	+1	40
10	Sampdoria	29	10	6	13	-4	36
11	Bologna	29	9	7	13	-6	34
12	Udinese	29	8	9	12	-7	33
13	Genoa	29	7	11	11	-10	32
14	Fiorentina	29	7	9	13	-10	30
15	Benevento	29	7	9	13	-24	30
16	Spezia	29	7	8	14	-16	29
17	Torino	28	4	12	12	-11	24
18	Cagliari	29	5	7	17	-19	22
19	Parma	29	3	11	15	-28	20
20	Crotone	29	4	3	22	-39	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	1	1	+22	34
2	Roma	15	10	3	2	+16	33
3	Juventus	14	10	2	2	+19	32
4	Napoli	14	10	1	3	+23	31
5	Atalanta	15	9	3	3	+19	30
6	Lazio	14	9	2	3	+6	29
7	Milan	15	6	5	4	+5	23
8	Bologna	14	6	3	5	+2	21
9	Verona	14	6	3	5	+2	21
10	Sampdoria	14	6	2	6	+1	20
11	Fiorentina	15	5	5	5	+1	20
12	Sassuolo	14	4	7	3	+1	19
13	Genoa	15	4	6	5	-1	18
14	Udinese	14	5	3	6	-1	18
15	Spezia	14	3	5	6	-6	14
16	Crotone	14	4	1	9	-9	13
17	Cagliari	15	3	3	9	-11	12
18	Benevento	15	2	6	7	-15	12
19	Torino	14	1	8	5	-5	11
20	Parma	15	2	5	8	-15	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	14	12	1	1	+15	37
2	Inter	15	10	4	1	+18	34
3	Atalanta	14	8	4	2	+13	28
4	Napoli	14	8	1	5	+7	25
5	Juventus	14	6	6	2	+12	24
6	Lazio	14	7	2	5	+1	23
7	Sassuolo	14	6	3	5	+0	21
8	Verona	15	5	5	5	+2	20
9	Roma	14	5	3	6	-7	18
10	Benevento	14	5	3	6	-9	18
11	Sampdoria	15	4	4	7	-5	16
12	Udinese	15	3	6	6	-6	15
13	Spezia	15	4	3	8	-10	15
14	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-9	14
15	Torino	14	3	4	7	-6	13
16	Bologna	15	3	4	8	-8	13
17	Cagliari	14	2	4	8	-8	10
18	Fiorentina	14	2	4	8	-11	10
19	Parma	14	1	6	7	-13	9
20	Crotone	15	0	2	13	-30	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.