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Bundesliga
Referee: M Schüttengruber
Sturm Graz
S S S S U
2–1
Full-time
Salzburg
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Salzburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 84%
67%
100%
Points per game
2,2
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,2
3,8
Scored
1,5
3,3
Conceded
0,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+2,8
This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches
Win Ø 66%
50%
82%
Points per game
1,8
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 66%
71%
61%
Both score Ø 57%
64%
50%
Average goals
3,3
3,1
Scored
2,0
2,5
Conceded
1,3
0,6
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

37% Possession 63%
9 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 5
1 Offside 3
5 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sturm Graz 2. · Salzburg 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Salzburg 28 23 4 1 +54 73
2 Sturm Graz 28 14 8 6 +19 50
3 Wolfsberger AC 28 12 4 12 -5 40
4 SK Rapid 28 10 9 9 +5 39
5 Austria Vienna 28 9 11 8 +2 38
6 Tirol 29 9 9 11 -13 36
7 LASK 29 8 10 11 +0 34
8 A. Klagenfurt 28 8 10 10 -12 34
9 Ried 29 8 10 11 -14 34
10 Hartberg 29 7 10 12 -2 31
11 Admira 29 6 12 11 -5 30
12 Altach 29 5 7 17 -29 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sturm Graz Salzburg
1–0 L. Jäger
J. Jantscher
14′
22′
B. Šeško 1–1
N. Capaldo
Half-time 1–1
57′
🟨 Bernardo
62′
🔁 A. Bernède
↦ N. Capaldo
62′
🔁 L. Sučić
↦ M. Kjærgaard
62′
🔁 Z. Junuzović
↦ N. Seiwald
2–1 J. Jantscher
S. Hierländer
72′
L. Kronberger 🔁
↦ A. Niangbo
74′
75′
🟨 Maximilian Wöber
76′
🔁 M. Diambou
↦ B. Aaronson
Lukas Jäger 🟨
81′
C. Lang 🔁
↦ J. Jantscher
88′
S. Stückler 🔁
↦ A. Kuen
90′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
27 J. Siebenhandl G
6 A. Borković D
42 D. Affengruber D
44 A. Dante D
25 S. Hierländer M
17 L. Jäger D
19 A. Kuen M
30 I. Ljubic M
13 J. Jantscher F
15 A. Niangbo M
11 M. Sarkaria F
Bench (7)
23 L. Kronberger
26 C. Lang
21 S. Stückler
32 T. Schützenauer
24 S. Ingolitsch
36 V. Trummer
16 S. Schendl

Coach: C. Ilzer

Salzburg

4-3-1-2
18 P. Köhn G
95 Bernardo D
39 M. Wöber D
2 I. Van der Brempt D
4 K. Piątkowski D
11 B. Aaronson M
13 N. Seiwald M
7 N. Capaldo M
14 M. Kjærgaard M
9 C. Adamu F
30 B. Šeško F
Bench (7)
10 A. Bernède
21 L. Sučić
16 Z. Junuzović
15 M. Diambou
17 A. Ulmer
22 O. Solet
1 N. Mantl

Coach: M. Jaissle

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Schüttengruber · 58 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.