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Coupe de France
Referee: M Leleu
Marnaval
S
0–3
Full-time
Bastia
U U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marnaval Bastia
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 9%
0%
17%
Both score Ø 17%
0%
33%
Average goals
2,0
1,5
Scored
2,0
0,3
Conceded
0,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+2,0
-0,8
This season — Coupe de France · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
2,0
0,0
Scored
2,0
0,0
Conceded
0,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Marnaval 37. · Bastia 106. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Annecy 2 2 0 0 +8 6
2 Bergerac 2 1 1 0 +1 4
3 Niort 2 1 1 0 +1 4
4 Les Herbiers 1 1 0 0 +5 3
5 Gobelins 1 1 0 0 +5 3
6 Villefranche 1 1 0 0 +5 3
7 Epinal 1 1 0 0 +4 3
8 Vire 1 1 0 0 +4 3
9 Louhans-Cuiseaux 1 1 0 0 +3 3
10 Grenoble 1 1 0 0 +3 3
11 Loon-Plage 1 1 0 0 +3 3
12 Sochaux 1 1 0 0 +3 3
13 Pau FC 1 1 0 0 +3 3
14 Dunkerque 1 1 0 0 +3 3
15 Thaon 1 1 0 0 +3 3
16 Nimes 1 1 0 0 +3 3
17 Belfort 1 1 0 0 +3 3
18 Bordeaux 1 1 0 0 +3 3
19 Rumilly Vallières 1 1 0 0 +3 3
20 La Châtaigneraie 1 1 0 0 +3 3
21 Granville 1 1 0 0 +2 3
22 Châtellerault 1 1 0 0 +2 3
23 Paris FC 1 1 0 0 +2 3
24 Jura Sud Foot 1 1 0 0 +2 3
25 Villerupt Thil 1 1 0 0 +2 3
26 Union Cosnoise 1 1 0 0 +2 3
27 Saint-Estève Perpignan 1 1 0 0 +2 3
28 Olympique Marcquois 1 1 0 0 +2 3
29 Le Puy Foot 1 1 0 0 +2 3
30 Avranches 1 1 0 0 +2 3
31 Thiers 1 1 0 0 +2 3
32 Grasse 1 1 0 0 +2 3
33 Boé Bon Encontre 1 1 0 0 +2 3
34 Bellevue Nantes 1 1 0 0 +2 3
35 Vierzon FC 1 1 0 0 +2 3
36 Guingamp 1 1 0 0 +2 3
37 Marnaval 1 1 0 0 +2 3
38 Limonest 1 1 0 0 +2 3
39 Wasquehal 1 1 0 0 +2 3
40 Mâcon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
41 Reipertswiller 1 1 0 0 +1 3
42 Colomiers 1 1 0 0 +1 3
43 Marcoussis Nozay 1 1 0 0 +1 3
44 Olympique St Quentin 1 1 0 0 +1 3
45 Aiglon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
46 Onet-le-Château 1 1 0 0 +1 3
47 Roche Saint-Genest 1 1 0 0 +1 3
48 Pays de Cassel 1 1 0 0 +1 3
49 Feignies-Aulnoye 1 1 0 0 +1 3
50 Metz 1 1 0 0 +1 3
51 Chateauroux 1 1 0 0 +1 3
52 Drancy 1 1 0 0 +1 3
53 Haguenau 1 1 0 0 +1 3
54 Évreux 27 1 1 0 0 +1 3
55 Stade Pontivy 1 1 0 0 +1 3
56 Stade Béthunois 1 1 0 0 +1 3
57 Stade Plabennec 1 1 0 0 +1 3
58 Avoine OCC 1 1 0 0 +1 3
59 Strasbourg Koenigshoffen 1 1 0 0 +1 3
60 Lyon Duchere 2 1 0 1 +0 3
61 Alençon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
62 Le Havre 1 0 1 0 +0 1
63 Saint-Malo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
64 Caen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
65 Montauban TG 1 0 1 0 +0 1
66 Olympique d'Alès 1 0 1 0 +0 1
67 Drapeau Fougères 1 0 1 0 +0 1
68 Le Mans 1 0 1 0 +0 1
69 Hyères 1 0 1 0 +0 1
70 Alberes Argelès 1 0 1 0 +0 1
71 Angoulême 1 0 1 0 +0 1
72 Trélissac 1 0 1 0 +0 1
73 Oissel 1 0 1 0 +0 1
74 Poissy 1 0 1 0 +0 1
75 Orvault SF 1 0 1 0 +0 1
76 Laval 1 0 1 0 +0 1
77 St-Pryvé St-Hilaire 1 0 1 0 +0 1
78 Dijon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
79 Toulon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
80 Aubagne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
81 Aubervilliers 1 0 1 0 +0 1
82 Quevilly Rouen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
83 Vannes 1 0 1 0 +0 1
84 Concarneau 1 0 1 0 +0 1
85 Chambéry 1 0 1 0 +0 1
86 Bourgoin-Jallieu 1 0 1 0 +0 1
87 Valenciennes 1 0 1 0 +0 1
88 Red Star 1 0 1 0 +0 1
89 Chamalières 1 0 1 0 +0 1
90 Gueugnon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
91 Châteaubriant 1 0 1 0 +0 1
92 Lannion 1 0 1 0 +0 1
93 Fleury 91 1 0 1 0 +0 1
94 Reims Sainte-Anne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
95 AC Paris 15 1 0 1 0 +0 1
96 Linas-Montlhery 1 0 1 0 +0 1
97 Chambly Thelle FC 1 0 1 0 +0 1
98 Amiens 1 0 1 0 +0 1
99 Le Geldar 1 0 1 0 +0 1
100 Grand Santi 1 0 1 0 +0 1
101 Etoile de Morne-à-l'Eau 1 0 1 0 +0 1
102 Sporting Baie-Mahault 1 0 1 0 +0 1
103 St Etienne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
104 Rodez 1 0 1 0 +0 1
105 Prix-lès-Mézières 1 0 1 0 +0 1
106 Bastia 1 0 1 0 +0 1
107 Vitré 1 0 1 0 +0 1
108 Ergué-Gaberic 1 0 1 0 +0 1
109 Bourges Foot 18 1 0 1 0 +0 1
110 Saint-Apollinaire 1 0 1 0 +0 1
111 Merpins 1 0 1 0 +0 1
112 Lège-Cap-Ferret 1 0 1 0 +0 1
113 Plouvorn 1 0 1 0 +0 1
114 Sablé 1 0 1 0 +0 1
115 Saint-Pierroise 1 0 1 0 +0 1
116 La Tamponnaise 1 0 1 0 +0 1
117 Velay 1 0 0 1 -1 0
118 Nancy 1 0 0 1 -1 0
119 Agde 1 0 0 1 -1 0
120 Le Pays du Valois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
121 Hienghène Sport 1 0 0 1 -1 0
122 Golden Lion 1 0 0 1 -1 0
123 Feurs 1 0 0 1 -1 0
124 Savigneux Montbrison 1 0 0 1 -1 0
125 Biars-Bretenoux 1 0 0 1 -1 0
126 Chaumont 1 0 0 1 -1 0
127 Escaudain 1 0 0 1 -1 0
128 Raon l'Etape 1 0 0 1 -1 0
129 Poitiers 1 0 0 1 -1 0
130 Gallia Lucciana 1 0 0 1 -1 0
131 Mérignac-Arlac 1 0 0 1 -1 0
132 Jura Dolois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
133 Saint-Priest 1 0 0 1 -1 0
134 Grand-Quevilly 1 0 0 1 -1 0
135 Saint-Grégoire 1 0 0 1 -1 0
136 Éperlecques 1 0 0 1 -1 0
137 Cholet 1 0 0 1 -1 0
138 Chauray 1 0 0 1 -1 0
139 Gandrange 1 0 0 1 -1 0
140 NDC Angers 1 0 0 1 -2 0
141 SA Mérignac 1 0 0 1 -2 0
142 Les Ulis 1 0 0 1 -2 0
143 Vaulx 1 0 0 1 -2 0
144 Villers-lès-Nancy 1 0 0 1 -2 0
145 Saint-Doulchard 1 0 0 1 -2 0
146 Narbonne 1 0 0 1 -2 0
147 Cambrai 1 0 0 1 -2 0
148 Andrézieux 1 0 0 1 -2 0
149 Chartres-de-Bretagne 1 0 0 1 -2 0
150 Fréjus St-Raphaël 1 0 0 1 -2 0
151 Cournon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
152 Lescar 1 0 0 1 -2 0
153 Basse Goulaine 1 0 0 1 -2 0
154 Pont Saintte-Maxence 1 0 0 1 -2 0
155 Auray 1 0 0 1 -2 0
156 JA Armentières 1 0 0 1 -2 0
157 Vénissieux 1 0 0 1 -2 0
158 Bondues 1 0 0 1 -2 0
159 Geispolsheim 1 0 0 1 -3 0
160 Illzach Modenheim 1 0 0 1 -3 0
161 Téteghem 1 0 0 1 -3 0
162 Hombourg-Haut 1 0 0 1 -3 0
163 Salinieres Aigues Mortes 1 0 0 1 -3 0
164 Beauvais 1 0 0 1 -3 0
165 Sarre Union 1 0 0 1 -3 0
166 Bastia-Borgo 1 0 0 1 -3 0
167 Vénus 1 0 0 1 -3 0
168 Stade Bordelais 1 0 0 1 -3 0
169 Saint-Louis Neuweg 1 0 0 1 -3 0
170 Séné 1 0 0 1 -3 0
171 Heillecourt 1 0 0 1 -4 0
172 Havre Caucriauville 1 0 0 1 -4 0
173 Mareuil 1 0 0 1 -5 0
174 Liancourt Clermont 1 0 0 1 -5 0
175 Tarentaise 1 0 0 1 -5 0
176 Diables Noirs 1 0 0 1 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marnaval Bastia
P. Beurton 🔁
↦ C. Petit
44′
Half-time 0–0
57′
🔁 Dylan Tavares
↦ M. Camara
57′
🔁 S. Salles-Lamonge
↦ J. Janneh
61′
🔁 K. Van Den Kerkhof
↦ D. Guidi
D. Vanzella 🔁
↦ A. Gerard
66′
J. Beaumet 🔁
↦ M. Zorgniotti
66′
70′
⚽ K. Schur 0–1
72′
🔁 A. Talal
↦ A. Robic
76′
⚽ B. Santelli 0–2
K. Delegue 🔁
↦ A. Lerouge
79′
92′
⚽ M. Alfarela 0–3
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Marnaval

M. Gerard
A. Pecheux
M. Leroy
A. Gerard
A. Gerard
M. Zorgniotti
A. Lerouge
K. Royer
C. Petit
J. Szczerbicki
Y. Tartare
Bench (7)
P. Beurton
D. Vanzella
J. Beaumet
K. Delegue
A. Simon
H. Fouilloux
J. Pavelac

Coach: A. Briard

Bastia

L. Boucher
J. Sainati
D. Guidi
A. N'Diaye
T. Ducrocq
M. Camara
J. Janneh
A. Robic
K. Schur
B. Santelli
M. Alfarela
Bench (6)
Dylan Tavares
S. Salles-Lamonge
K. Van Den Kerkhof
A. Talal
I. Dramé
J. Placide

Coach: R. Brouard

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Leleu · 59 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
27,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.