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Ekstraklasa

Referee: L Kuzma

Arka Gdynia

U T T U U

2–3

Full-time

Nieciecza

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arka Gdynia Nieciecza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 25%

28%

22%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

59%

53%

Both score Ø 60%

50%

69%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,95 xG 1,24

44% Possession 56%

16 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 4

4 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arka Gdynia 17. · Nieciecza 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	33	16	11	6	+17	+28.7	59
2	Jagiellonia	33	14	11	8	+14	-4.9	53
3	Gornik Zabrze	33	15	8	10	+8	-3.3	53
4	Rakow	33	15	7	11	+8	+7.8	52
5	GKS Katowice	33	14	7	12	+6	-6.3	49
6	Zaglebie	33	13	9	11	+8	-8.7	48
7	Legia	33	11	13	9	+1	+3.6	46
8	Wisla Plock	33	12	9	12	-4	-2.5	45
9	Radomiak Radom	33	11	11	11	+3	-2.3	44
10	Pogon Szczecin	33	13	5	15	-2	+5.6	44
11	Lechia Gdansk	33	12	7	14	-2	+5.1	43
12	Motor Lublin	33	10	13	10	-3	-9.7	43
13	Korona Kielce	33	11	9	13	+0	-3.5	42
14	Piast Gliwice	33	11	8	14	-3	+1.6	41
15	Cracovia	33	9	14	10	-3	+2.4	41
16	Widzew Lodz	33	11	6	16	-1	+3.9	39
17	Arka Gdynia	32	9	9	14	-23	-8.2	36
18	Nieciecza	32	7	7	18	-24	-9.1	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	GKS Katowice	17	10	3	4	+11	-1.1	33
2	Radomiak Radom	17	9	4	4	+15	+8.0	31
3	Gornik Zabrze	16	10	1	5	+13	+3.9	31
4	Arka Gdynia	16	8	6	2	+4	-0.6	30
5	Pogon Szczecin	16	9	2	5	+9	+7.3	29
6	Lechia Gdansk	17	8	4	5	+11	+5.7	28
7	Widzew Lodz	16	8	4	4	+7	+5.7	28
8	Zaglebie	17	7	6	4	+11	-0.1	27
9	Lech Poznan	16	7	6	3	+10	+16.7	27
10	Jagiellonia	16	8	3	5	+9	+4.0	27
11	Legia	16	7	6	3	+7	+5.9	27
12	Wisla Plock	17	8	3	6	+0	+1.8	27
13	Korona Kielce	17	7	5	5	+6	+3.6	26
14	Rakow	16	7	4	5	+5	+6.4	25
15	Motor Lublin	17	5	9	3	+3	+0.2	24
16	Cracovia	16	5	8	3	+4	+7.3	23
17	Piast Gliwice	17	6	4	7	+0	+5.8	22
18	Nieciecza	16	3	4	9	-11	-3.3	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	17	9	5	3	+7	+12.0	32
2	Rakow	17	8	3	6	+3	+1.4	27
3	Jagiellonia	17	6	8	3	+5	-8.9	26
4	Gornik Zabrze	17	5	7	5	-5	-7.2	22
5	Zaglebie	16	6	3	7	-3	-8.6	21
6	Piast Gliwice	16	5	4	7	-3	-4.2	19
7	Motor Lublin	16	5	4	7	-6	-9.9	19
8	Legia	17	4	7	6	-6	-2.3	19
9	Wisla Plock	16	4	6	6	-4	-4.3	18
10	Cracovia	17	4	6	7	-7	-5.0	18
11	GKS Katowice	16	4	4	8	-5	-5.3	16
12	Korona Kielce	16	4	4	8	-6	-7.2	16
13	Pogon Szczecin	17	4	3	10	-11	-1.7	15
14	Lechia Gdansk	16	4	3	9	-13	-0.6	15
15	Nieciecza	16	4	3	9	-13	-5.8	15
16	Radomiak Radom	16	2	7	7	-12	-10.3	13
17	Widzew Lodz	17	3	2	12	-8	-1.8	11
18	Arka Gdynia	16	1	3	12	-27	-7.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.