Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Clermont
Valenciennes
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 2–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Lorient
|
23 | 16 | 3 | 4 | +23 | 51 |
| 2 |
Lens
|
23 | 13 | 7 | 3 | +16 | 46 |
| 3 |
Ajaccio
|
23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | +11 | 42 |
| 4 |
Clermont
|
23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | +5 | 38 |
| 5 |
Troyes
|
23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | +2 | 38 |
| 6 |
Le Havre
|
23 | 9 | 10 | 4 | +11 | 37 |
| 7 |
Valenciennes
|
23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | +4 | 35 |
| 8 |
Guingamp
|
23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | +7 | 32 |
| 9 |
Nancy
|
23 | 6 | 14 | 3 | +4 | 32 |
| 10 |
Grenoble
|
23 | 6 | 13 | 4 | +1 | 31 |
| 11 |
Sochaux
|
23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 29 |
| 12 |
Auxerre
|
23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 27 |
| 13 |
Caen
|
23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | -4 | 27 |
| 14 | Chambly | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | -7 | 27 |
| 15 |
Rodez
|
23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 26 |
| 16 |
Chateauroux
|
23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -14 | 25 |
| 17 |
Le Mans
|
23 | 6 | 3 | 14 | -13 | 21 |
| 18 |
Niort
|
23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -10 | 19 |
| 19 |
Paris FC
|
23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -19 | 18 |
| 20 |
Orleans
|
23 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -15 | 16 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Auxerre
Clermont
Clermont
Orleans
Lens
Clermont
Clermont
Troyes
Caen
Clermont
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.