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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Birmingham

U T T T S

1–3

Full-time

Norwich

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,8

1,7

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — Championship · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 42%

23%

61%

Points per game

1,0

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

32%

39%

Both score Ø 45%

42%

48%

Average goals

1,9

2,1

Scored

0,7

1,4

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

36% Possession 64%

14 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 22. · Norwich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	31	19	7	5	+18	64
2	Watford	31	16	9	6	+19	57
3	Brentford	29	15	8	6	+21	53
4	Reading	31	15	6	10	+8	51
5	Bournemouth	30	13	10	7	+16	49
6	Swansea	26	14	7	5	+14	49
7	Cardiff	31	13	7	11	+13	46
8	Middlesbrough	31	13	7	11	+5	46
9	Stoke	31	11	12	8	+4	45
10	Barnsley	28	13	6	9	+3	45
11	Millwall	31	9	15	7	+3	42
12	Blackburn	30	11	6	13	+9	39
13	QPR	29	10	9	10	-4	39
14	Preston	31	12	3	16	-8	39
15	Bristol City	31	12	3	16	-13	39
16	Luton	30	10	7	13	-11	37
17	Nott'm Forest	31	9	9	13	-5	36
18	Huddersfield	31	10	6	15	-7	36
19	Derby	30	9	7	14	-10	34
20	Sheffield Weds	30	9	7	14	-11	34
21	Coventry	31	8	10	13	-13	34
22	Birmingham	31	7	10	14	-15	31
23	Rotherham	29	8	5	16	-7	29
24	Wycombe	30	4	8	18	-29	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	16	12	2	2	+20	38
2	Norwich	16	10	5	1	+13	35
3	Bournemouth	15	9	3	3	+12	30
4	Swansea	14	8	5	1	+11	29
5	Reading	16	9	0	7	+4	27
6	Huddersfield	16	8	2	6	+7	26
7	Middlesbrough	15	8	2	5	+4	26
8	Brentford	13	7	4	2	+11	25
9	Stoke	16	7	4	5	+3	25
10	Barnsley	13	7	3	3	+4	24
11	Coventry	16	6	6	4	+0	24
12	Sheffield Weds	15	6	5	4	+3	23
13	Bristol City	16	7	2	7	-2	23
14	Blackburn	14	6	4	4	+6	22
15	QPR	15	6	4	5	+0	22
16	Cardiff	16	6	3	7	+8	21
17	Nott'm Forest	16	5	6	5	+1	21
18	Luton	14	5	5	4	+0	20
19	Millwall	16	3	10	3	+2	19
20	Derby	15	4	4	7	-7	16
21	Rotherham	14	4	3	7	+0	15
22	Preston	15	4	2	9	-5	14
23	Wycombe	15	2	5	8	-10	11
24	Birmingham	15	2	3	10	-15	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	15	9	2	4	+5	29
2	Brentford	16	8	4	4	+10	28
3	Cardiff	15	7	4	4	+5	25
4	Preston	16	8	1	7	-3	25
5	Reading	15	6	6	3	+4	24
6	Millwall	15	6	5	4	+1	23
7	Birmingham	16	5	7	4	+0	22
8	Barnsley	15	6	3	6	-1	21
9	Swansea	12	6	2	4	+3	20
10	Middlesbrough	16	5	5	6	+1	20
11	Stoke	15	4	8	3	+1	20
12	Bournemouth	15	4	7	4	+4	19
13	Watford	15	4	7	4	-1	19
14	Derby	15	5	3	7	-3	18
15	Blackburn	16	5	2	9	+3	17
16	QPR	14	4	5	5	-4	17
17	Luton	16	5	2	9	-11	17
18	Bristol City	15	5	1	9	-11	16
19	Nott'm Forest	15	4	3	8	-6	15
20	Rotherham	15	4	2	9	-7	14
21	Sheffield Weds	15	3	2	10	-14	11
22	Coventry	15	2	4	9	-13	10
23	Huddersfield	15	2	4	9	-14	10
24	Wycombe	15	2	3	10	-19	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.